It’s do-or-die time in MLB, which means there is a lot riding on every pitch from here until October. This article will try to find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
We’re coming off another winning weekend (4-3 SU +0.97u) and have three player props in our sights for Saturday. We’re backing a Colorado hitter in a game that could see a ton of total bases, fading a pitcher who is making his first start after nearly tossing a perfect game and hoping to cash in on a long ball in Boston.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Saturday, August 21.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Charlie Blackmon Over 1.5 total bases (-132)
There is a lot to like in the Rockies-Diamondbacks games from an offensive player prop point of view. Ballparkpal has it rated as the highest total-bases park of the day at +7.13 bases.
The Rockies will face Arizona starter Zac Gallen, who Charlie Blackmon has hit successfully off of going 7 for 12 over his career. The Rockies’ middle-of-the-order hitter has also been swinging a hot stick of late hitting .320 with a .933 OPS over his last seven games. He has topped 1.5 total bases in three of his last four games and is riding a five-game hitting streak.
At home this year, Blackmon has a .423 slugging percentage, which is nearly 50 points higher than his road splits. He is slugging .750 versus Gallen and should get ample opportunities to top his total bases prop with a game total set at 11.5.
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 home runs (+250)
Boston’s Kyle Schwarber has been eased into the Red Sox's lineup since recovering from hamstring and groin injuries. It may be forgotten to some but the former National was launching long balls at will before getting dinged up, and had 16 homers in June before injuries struck.
Since getting back into the order, Schwarber is slashing .462/.611/.692 through five games with the Red Sox and although he hasn’t gone deep yet, these numbers are too good for that trend to continue.
The DH/1B is slugging .735 over his last 117 plate appearances against right-handers with low strikeout rates like Texas’ Jordan Lyles, per Yahoo fantasy. Schwarber has also seen Lyles six times over his career and has already taken him deep.
Lyles is coming off a game versus the Athletics where he gave up four home runs, which ran his total to 14 allowed over his last six starts. Over that stretch, he’s been taken deep at least three times in three of those starts. This is a great matchup for the heavy-hitting Schwarber.
Triston McKenzie Under 16.5 total outs (-123)
Triston McKenzie was the talk of the town last Sunday when he flirted with a perfect game into the eighth inning versus the Tigers. If you’ve ever seen a McKenzie start, you know that the tall drink of water has electric stuff that runs and tails a ton. The problem with the 24-year-old right-hander has been his consistency. He has either been lights out or a work in progress.
The Cleveland starter has a 10.75 ERA across his five losses this year and a 0-1 record with a 5.00 ERA at home across seven home starts this year. He had a 6.11 ERA just three starts ago and despite having pitched at least six innings in three straight games, he had accomplished that feat just two times in his previous 15 starts. The Angels aren’t an offensive juggernaut by any means but are better than their four-hit, one-run performance from yesterday.
McKenzie is paying -123 to record 16 or fewer outs and that is where our money is going. We love fading pitchers after massive games.
MLB betting card for August 21
- Charlie Blackmon Over 1.5 total bases (-132)
- Triston McKenzie Under 16.5 total outs (-123)
- Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 home runs (+250)
Picks made on 8/21/2021 at 8:05 a.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB prop picks, you could win $101.53 on a $10 bet?
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Where can I bet on MLB props?
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