There’s no better way to kick off a hot summer weekend than picking some winners in the MLB player prop market, and with all 30 teams taking the diamond, there is no shortage of options.
The Yankees and Orioles start a massive series in Baltimore and hope to get the series off to a good start by handing the ball to Gerrit Cole. Something that can’t make O’s slugger Anthony Santander happy. Meanwhile, Shane McClanahan still doesn’t look 100 percent but he’ll be on the mound against the Astros. And I think there is a regression coming for Rangers starter Dane Dunning. So, which Padres player is the best bet to take advantage of that?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my favorite player prop bets below.
MLB props for July 28
- Santander Under 0.5 hits
- McClanahan Under 17.5 outs
- Kim Over 1.5 TBs
Picks made on July 28 at 1:20 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Cold Streak Continues
If the New York Yankees want to have a shot at the postseason they’re going to have to start making up ground on the top teams in the American League immediately. So, why not start tonight when they open a massive three-game series with the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards?
The Yankees will put their best foot forward in Game 1 by handing the ball to Gerrit Cole. The veteran right-hander is the betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award despite this not being his best year in recent memory.
His expected ERA is a good, not great, 3.60 and his strikeout rate is the lowest it has been since he was still a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. But he comes into this game dealing, allowing just three earned runs on seven hits while striking out 21 over 12 1/3 innings since coming out of the All-Star break.
Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander will not be happy to see Cole on the mound in this matchup.
For starters, Santander is in the middle of a pretty ugly slump and no one wants to face Cole when you’re not seeing the ball well. The O’s slugger is hitting just .108 with a .377 OPS and 13 strikeouts over his last 10 games.
On top of that, Santander just doesn’t like facing Cole on his best day. Santander is just 3-19 with six strikeouts in his career vs. Cole. That’s good for a .146 expected batting average and a .196 expected slugging percentage.
If things go as planned for Cole, Santander will likely face him three times before going against a high-leverage Yankees bullpen arm. The slump continues. Take the Under on his hits prop tonight.
Anthony Santander prop: Under 0.5 hits (+165 at BetRivers)
Prop bet #2: Eroding Ace
At this point, Shane McClanahan looks like a pretty good microcosm of the Tampa Bay Rays season. The Rays right-hander got off to a fantastic start and was a front-runner for the American League Cy Young Award.
But then, like the rest of his team, he cooled off a bit and on top of that, he suffered a back injury which held him out for a few weeks. Now that he’s back, it’s fair to say he doesn’t look 100 percent, and that’s not a great thing going into a matchup with the Houston Astros.
McClanahan has surrendered seven runs on eight hits and three walks over his first two starts coming out of the All-Star break. That has bumped his expected ERA up to 3.95. The left-hander is also known as a strikeout guy ranking in the 69th percentile in K-rate. But he also battles his control at times as his walk rate is in the 31st percentile.
On top of that, the Rays are one of the more analytically driven teams, and McClanahan rarely goes through an opposing lineup more than three times. So, even though he’s an ace, McClanahan has a relatively short leash. He averages just 87 pitches per start.
And now he has to go against the defending champion Astros that appears to be peaking at the right time, having won six of their last eight games and sit just two games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West standings. Overall, they rank ninth in batting average, 10th in OPS, and ninth in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitching.
The Astros are also a patient team at the dish with the fourth-best walk-to-strikeout ratio vs. lefties in baseball.
To me, all that adds up a shorter outing for McClanahan. At least short enough to go Under 17.5 outs recorded. Something he has done in three of his last four starts.
Shane McClanahan prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (-115 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Kim Stays Hot
Speaking of the Rangers they, start an interesting interleague series with the San Diego Padres. Interesting because we are unsure if the Padres will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.
That’s because they are a disappointing 49-54 for the season and six-and-a-half games out of the final wild-card spot in the National League. Inconsistency at the plate has been one of the Padres' biggest problems, but luckily for them, their leadoff man has been locked in lately.
Ha-Seong Kim has been a catalyst for the Padres offense. He is hitting .362 with a 1.077 OPS over his last 15 games, which includes multi-hit games in three of his last five and I like his matchup tonight against Rangers starter Dane Dunning.
Dunning has been one of the most interesting starting pitchers in baseball this season. The right-hander owns a solid 3.18 ERA, but I feel like a big regression is on the way.
Dunning is pitching to an expected ERA nearly two whole runs higher at 4.95. He is surrendering an expected batting average of .277 and an expected slugging percentage of .446. Both of which rank in the Bottom 22% or worse in the MLB. He also doesn’t strike out anyone. Dunning’s 15.4% K-rate is in just the fifth percentile.
And I think we saw the start of that regression in his latest start, where he got tagged for five runs on seven hits in just three innings of work against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
At the plus money we are getting I feel good about backing Kim to go Over 1.5 total bases. Something he has done nine times in his last 15 games.
Ha-Seong Kim prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+165 at bet365)
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