Very small slate today, but there are still a ton of MLB player props to sift through.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 27, including why Yordan Alvarez is going to mash in the Bronx.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Spencer Arrighetti |
Over 1.5 Earned Runs | -168 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -120 |
 Colorado Rockies |
F5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs | +100 |
Spencer Arrighetti Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-168)
The Kansas City Royals find themselves in a mouthwatering matchup against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Spencer Arrighetti. The starter has been tormented by left-handed hitters this season, and the Royals have four left-handers in strong spots against him.
Against the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced, Arrighetti sports a 13.50 ERA and 9.10 xERA, while allowing a 43% hard-hit rate, 14.3% barrel rate and 22.9% ground-ball rate. Those left-handed hitters own a .336 xBA, .811 xSLG and .462 xwOBA.
Over the last week, Kansas City has a 127 wRC+, .355 wOBA and .804 OPS. This team has hit another gear this past week as it takes on a guy appearing on his third team this season.
Yes, it is a juicy prop, and if you are not in the juice-paying business, take the Royals' first-five team total over 2.5 at plus money, or his 2.5 earned runs allowed.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-120)
Houston Astros big fella is in a cinematic matchup against New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Fingers crossed the right hander will not chicken out and actually pitch to the future 2026 AL MVP.
We are backing Yordan Alvarez for a few reasons, one being the price for a prop he has cashed almost 65% of the time when he has owned an elite rating on Batters-Box. Secondly, Cole is a very fastball-heavy pitcher. This season alone, Alvarez owns a .306 BA, .412 xBA and 1.096 OPS, while posting a 57% hard-hit rate against fastballs.
Over his last 10 batted balls, Alvarez has hit five balls above 102.2 MPH. He is in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks. We just need him to catch a fastball.
Take this down to -130.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, SCHN
Rockies First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+100)
The Denver Pebbles have had a very productive offensive series against the Washington Nationals. This evening, they draw the worst-rated pitcher on Batters-Box while having five elite-rated hitters, with three having strong ratings.
That pitcher is right-hander Jake Irvin, who has struggled heavily this season, especially at home, where he sports a 7.52 ERA, 5.70 xERA and 1.67 WHIP.
Seven of those eight strongly rated bats will be hitting from the left side this afternoon. Over the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced, Irvin has an 8.36 ERA, allowing a 50% hard-hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate and 2.57 HR/9. Those lefties have a .294 xBA, .636 xSLG and .304 ISO.
This past week, the Colorado Rockies own a .334 wOBA, 11.1% walk rate, .749 OPS and 42% hard-hit rate. With how poorly Irvin has been recently against left-handed hitters and overall this season at home, the Rockies have a strong chance to go up early.
Find plus money, do not pay juice.
- Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, NATS
- Prop picks: 433-866, -19.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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