A new week of big league action kicks off with 10 games on the schedule, so there is no shortage of options for MLB player props.
My three favorite plays for May 5 include fading Christian Yelich and Griffin Canning, while backing the bat of Lawrence Butler.
Best MLB player props today
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Yelich u0.5 hits (+143) -
Canning o2.5 earned runs (-109) -
Butler o1.5 total bases (+116)
MLB props for May 5
Christian Yelich Under 0.5 hits (+143 at Caesars)
Christian Yelich is in one heck of a slump, and I'll happily fade him in my MLB picks.
The former National League MVP has just one hit in his last 22 plate appearances, while racking up 10 strikeouts over his last five games. That works out to a .050 batting average with a .186 OPS. Just ugly numbers.
On the surface, this might not look like a terrible matchup for Yelich. The left-handed batter has the split edge against what appears to be a struggling righty in Houston's Ronel Blanco.
Blanco comes into this game with a 5.14 ERA, but he’s been much better than that number suggests. The RHP expected ERA is at 3.47, and his opponent's xBA is .214, which ranks in the 79th percentile.
He uses an array of offspeed and breaking pitches to create soft contact and ranks in the 79th percentile or better in average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, and hard-hit percentage. That’s not a good combination for Yelich, who still hits just .231 against right-handed pitchers.
Blanco has allowed just 10 hits over his last three starts, and I’m betting the slumping Yelich doesn’t get a knock off him tonight and puts up another donut in the hits column. Something he has done in four of his last five games.
Griffin Canning Over 2.5 earned runs (-109 at Caesars)
Despite what the numbers say, I’m still not a believer in Griffin Canning.
On paper, Canning has been great. The 28-year-old has a 2.61 ERA and has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts.
However, his overall body of work as a big leaguer and advanced metrics says the veteran has been a little lucky. I’m betting that luck runs out tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Canning has never been awful, he’s just never had a season where his xERA is lower than 4.01. And while he’s got a low ERA this season, his xERA is nearly a run and a half higher at 3.93, which ranks in the 46th percentile.
He also has an xBA that ranks in the 38th percentile, and Griffin has been giving up hard contact. He ranks in the 14th percentile in average exit velocity and the 21st percentile in hard-hit rate.
Griffin will face off tonight against a solid D-backs lineup that hits the ball hard, ranking 13th in batting average, fourth in OPS, and seventh in wRC+. Arizona will power itself to a handful of runs tonight against Griffin.
Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 total bases (+116 at Caesars)
The Seattle Mariners vs. the Athletics is the battle for the American League West we didn’t know we needed.
While there is a long way to go, it wouldn’t be surprising to see these teams duking it out all season long. Game 1 of this set sees Bryce Miller toe the rubber against Luis Severino, and this pitching matchup has me looking at the total bases for one of the A’s young hitters.
Miller ranks in the 56th percentile in both expected ERA and expected batting average, so he's pretty average. The problem with Miller is he’s getting hit hard. He ranks in the 27th percentile in average exit velocity and the 36th percentile in hard-hit rate.
That’s why I’m targeting Lawrence Butler. The A’s outfielder can clobber the ball, ranking in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity and the 83rd in bat speed.
Butler also comes into this game playing fairly well, with six hits in his last five games with a double, a dinger, and four RBI. He’s also had past success against Miller, going 2-for-4 with a home run in seven plate appearances. That’s good for a .563 xBA and a 1.426 xSLG.
We are also getting a solid price on Butler to go Over 1.5 total bases, something he's done in three of his last four games.
Not intended for use in MA.
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