It’s the first weekend of May. The weather is getting nicer, so it’s time to sit back and enjoy some baseball. And nothing makes it more enjoyable than some winning MLB player props.
I’ve found my three favorite for today’s action which includes Booby Witt Jr. to keep doing his thing when he and the Royals take on Dean Kremer and the Orioles. And if you aren’t fading Kremer and the O’s pitching at this point, you’re doing it wrong.
Here are my MLB picks for Friday, May 2.
Best MLB player props today
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Varsho 2+ total bases (+155) -
Witt Jr. o0.5 RBI (+145) -
Garcia u0.5 hits (+140)
MLB props for May 2
Daulton Varsho 2+ total bases (+155 at bet365)
The Toronto Blue Jays are thrilled to have Daulton Varsho back in the lineup. And not just for his glove.
Varsho hit another home run last night. A solo shot in the bottom of the seventh that got the Blue Jays on the board and gave them the boost they needed to grab a second consecutive comeback win over the Boston Red Sox.
Now, Varsho heads into a series against the Cleveland Guardians with three hits, three walks, and a 1.362 OPS in his first three games of the season, which includes hitting dingers in back-to-back games.
The Blue Jays’ Gold Glove outfielder will probably never hit for a great average, but for a team that has been dying for more power, the pop in his bat is a welcome addition, and I think he keeps swinging a hot stick tonight.
The Guardians hand the ball to Logan Allen tonight, and it’s been an up-and-down season for the 26-year-old left-hander. He’s had great starts against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, and the Chicago White Sox, while the Red Sox and San Diego Padres have roughed him up.
So, basically, good vs. bad and bad vs. good.
But the overall advanced numbers aren’t great. Allen ranks in the 30th percentile in expected ERA and the 14th percentile in strikeout rate. He also has some very interesting splits.
Left-handed batters have surprisingly crushed him. Allen has surrendered an eye-popping .474 batting average and a 1.155 OPS to lefties this season.
I like Varsho to barrel up a ball or two tonight and get to at least two total bases for the third straight game.
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+145 at bet365)
Fading Dean Kremer is a good idea these days. So, fading him with Bobby Witt Jr. is a no-brainer.
The story is the same for basically all Baltimore Orioles pitchers this season. Kremer has gotten off to a terrible start this season.
The 29-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 5.70 expected ERA while giving up a .299 expected batting average over his first six starts of the season. Those rank in the 14th and 12th percentiles among MLB pitchers.
He also isn’t striking out anyone. His 14.3% K-rate is in the Bottom 10% of the league.
So, facing a guy like Witt has got to just be a nightmare.
The Kansas City Royals superstar is crushing it. Witt enters this matchup hitting .322 with an .896 OPS. Witt is also on an incredible 22-game hit streak, where his average is up to .363 and the OPS is .992.
On top of that, he’s been driving in runs lately. Six RBIs for Witt over his last seven games, driving in at least one in four of those games.
It doesn’t hurt that Witt is also 4-for-11 with a dinger and no strikeouts in his career against Kremer. That’s good for a .402 xBA and a .816 xSLG.
I like Witt to drive in another run tonight against the struggling Orioles starter.
Adolis Garcia Under 0.5 hits (+140 at bet365)
The Seattle Mariners have surged to the top of the American League West standings thanks in part to their bats starting to wake up and finally supporting the starting pitching.
But make no mistake, it’s the pitching that will carry this Seattle team this season, and we’ll see that on display when they open a series against the Texas Rangers tonight by handing the ball to Bryan Woo.
The 25-year-old right-hander is off to a great start this season. Woo is pitching to a 2.99 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .226 expected batting average over five starts this season. He also pitched well against the Rangers back on April 12, holding them to one run on six hits while striking out seven over seven innings pitched.
Woo also has a 27.6% strikeout rate against current Rangers hitters, and one in particular who won’t be happy to see Woo is Adolis Garcia.
It’s another season where the Rangers slugger is not hitting for a good average, coming into this one hitting .218 with a .666 OPS. Over the last 10 games, that average drops to .200, where he has also struck out 14 times.
And while Garcia has taken Woo deep before, he has just a .177 xBA in 12 career plate appearances against Woo with five strikeouts.
Garcia has gone hitless in five of his last 10 games. At this plus money, I’m betting he puts up another donut in the hit column tonight.
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