Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Greene Gets Best of Mets

James Bisson - Head of Content, Betting
James Bisson • Head of Content, Betting 16+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 5, 2024 , 09:35 AM ET • 4 min read

Tony Sartori's MLB betting picks for Friday night are targeting three pitcher strikeout props. Find out why he believes Hunter Greene is in for a big night vs. the Mets.

With a stacked 13-game slate throughout Friday, there are an abundance of MLB odds to choose from.

I’ve compiled my three best MLB player props for today’s action. As always, make sure you shop around and look for the best prices as these are rapidly-changing markets that see lots of action throughout the day.

Here are my free MLB picks in the player prop market for Friday, April 5.

MLB props for April 5

Picks made on 4/5 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Best MLB bets today

Prop bet #1: More Mets misery

The Cincinnati Reds host the New York Mets in the evening portion of Friday’s MLB slate. Right-hander Hunter Greene gets the ball for Cincinnati and should be a good candidate in the strikeout department.

Yes, there are certainly flaws with Greene’s game, but the punchout is not one of them. Despite allowing two runs on five hits in under five innings of work in his first start of 2024, Greene still racked up seven strikeouts.

If he had gone longer, he could have gotten to eight, a number I believe he can eclipse by going against this terrible New York lineup. This season, the Mets rank in the Bottom 4 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.

They also rank in the bottom half of the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching, which bodes well for Greene.

Hunter Greene prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Brown bagging it

There is an AL West matchup later in the evening with the Texas Rangers hosting the Houston Astros. Right-hander Hunter Brown gets the nod for Houston and should also be a good candidate to back in the strikeout department on Friday.

While Brown did not put together the strongest rookie campaign, he was excellent with the punchout as he ranked in the 75th percentile in K%. He recorded nearly 200 strikeouts, which is impressive for the former fifth round pick out of Wayne State.

In his last start against Texas in 2023, Brown recorded six strikeouts across just four innings of work. There are plenty of good strikeout candidates in the Rangers’ lineup among the likes of Adolis Garcia, Jared Walsh and Ezequiel Duran, all of whom possess a K% north of 27% this season.

Hunter Brown prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+110 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: Cody broken

Sticking with the same game, we are going to fade Texas’ starting pitcher in Cody Bradford. I want to take this opportunity to sell high on Bradford after he collected six strikeouts across five innings in his first start this season against the Chicago Cubs.

With that said, Houston is an entirely different beast. This season, it ranks in the Top 3 of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.

The Astros also do an incredible job at avoiding punchouts, ranking fourth in K%. Meanwhile, Bradford struggled mightily in that department last year, ranking in the 21st percentile in Whiff% and 37th percentile in K%.

Through 35 career plate appearances against Bradford, this current Houston lineup possesses a mere 17.1 K% and 13.7 Whiff%.

Cody Bradford prop: Under 3.5 strikeouts (+123 at Caesars)

Not intended for use in MA.
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James Bisson
Head of Content, Betting

James Bisson is the Editor-in-Chief at Covers. He has been a writer, reporter and editor for more than 20 years, including a nine-year stint with The Canadian Press and more than five years at theScore. He has covered dozens of marquee events including the 2010 Winter Olympics, the 2006 Stanley Cup final and Wrestlemania 23, and his work has appeared in more than 200 publications, including the Los Angeles Times, the Guardian, Yahoo! Sports, the Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail.

His book, “100 Greatest Canadian Sports Moments”, was a hardcover best-seller in Canada in 2008 and earned him appearances on CBC Radio and Canada AM. He has written more than 50 sportsbook reviews, more than 200 industry news articles, and dozens of other sportsbook-related content articles.

A graduate of the broadcast journalism program at Ryerson University (now Toronto Metropolitan University), James has been an avid bettor since the early 2000s, and cites bet365 as his favorite sports betting site due to its superior functionality and quick payouts. His biggest professional highlight: Covering Canada's first Olympic gold medal on home soil – and interviewing Bret Hart. Twice.

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