Two of baseball’s best pitchers will meet in Arlington today as Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies take on Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers, who sit as -135 home favorites.
It’s no surprise that today’s meeting is projected as one of the lowest-scoring games on the board, but because of deGrom likely being handled with oven mitts, is there some value in the Phillies’ offense — especially with some of the lesser-known players?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Rangers on Thursday, March 30.
Phillies vs Rangers odds
Phillies vs Rangers predictions
Darick Hall was having a great spring and was projected to see plenty of at-bats vs. right-handed pitching, where he has a 0.865 OPS in his 130 career at-bats. Now with Rhys Hoskins out, Hall has moved into a full-time role, and is slotted to hit in the middle of a very talented Phillies lineup.
Hall’s at-bats vs. deGrom might be difficult, but there is a chance he sees at least two at-bats vs. the Rangers bullpen that has some poor middle relievers.
FanGraphs is projecting Hall to hit fourth in the lineup, as Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and JT Realmuto will set the table for him while Nick Castellanos will be hitting behind him.
Hall also saw the shift over 87% of his at-bats (34th most in baseball) and could benefit from the outlaw of the defensive alignment. He also barrels the ball often.
Darick Hall low-key crushed the ball last year:— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) March 24, 2023
- 91.4 MPH AVG EV
- 113 MPH max EV
- 17.4% barrel rate
If you lower the batted ball minimum to 50 on Baseball Savant, Hall ranked 7th in barrel rate, ahead of Shohei Ohtani, Austin Riley and Oneil Cruz.
Looking at his markets, there is value across the board. Hall also took a lot of pitches this spring, tallying nine walks in 59 plate appearances to just 10 strikeouts with a .409 OBP. He has power and can get on base, making many of his offensive props viable today.
THE BAT X is projecting him for 0.44 runs and 0.49 RBI, and with bet365 giving us a better price on the RBI at +310, that’s where I’m going with my best bet.
Turner could easily get into scoring position for Hall, and both Realmuto and Schwarber have easy extra-base power. Hall could cash this play and not even record a hit.
deGrom is priced too heavily into these props, with THE BAT X projecting just 75 pitches for a hurler who will be handled with extreme caution. Globe Life Field also projects as the best hitting environment on the slate today.
My best bet: Hall Over 0.5 RBI (+310 at bet365)
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Phillies vs Rangers moneyline analysis
Jacob deGrom enters his first start with his new club as a -135 home favorite, but has a tough task vs. a loaded Philadelphia offense that still has plenty of talent despite the loss of Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper recovering from Tommy John.
Even if deGrom goes five and allows one run, this Philly offense could do some damage vs. the weakness of this Texas team, which is in its middle relief pitching. The Texas pen is left-hand dominant, and three of its best middle-inning pitchers posted an ERA of nearly 5.00 a season ago.
Nola is also a great arm to back at plus-money on the road. He led all pitchers in WAR last season and is projected to throw around 20 pitches more than deGrom and record roughly four more outs, per THE BAT projections.
The Rangers are also a top-heavy lineup, as not one single batter in the bottom six hit above .242 last season. With Corey Seager and Marcus Semien hitting at the top of the order, there might not be much traffic with the lack of talent at the bottom of the lineup.
This moneyline did open at Philadelphia +105, so we should respect the 10-point market move. But I think at +115, we’ve hit the threshold to take the visitors on the moneyline. as the price is deGrom-dependent, but he might not see the sixth inning thanks to his pitch count.
Phillies vs Rangers Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 6.5, and the vig has since seen a five-point move to the Over.
Globe Life Field is playing as the best hitter’s park today with 70-degree temperatures, humidity at nearly 80%, and some potentially heavy winds that are projected to blow from right to left field.
These winds are 18 mph, which is significant, and any adjustment moving more out would certainly benefit the Over.
Nola kept the home runs in check last season with just 18 allowed over 200-plus innings. There’s also a lack of on-base skill in this Texas lineup, making a home run less likely to create a crooked number.
deGrom has also been great in the spring, hitting triple-digit speeds often. It will be tough for the Phillies to get more than one vs. him (Over 1.5 earned runs is +165), but his leash is the concern for Under backers, and likely the reason the Over has taken a little money.
There's a lot of skill in this Philly lineup. and Turner could be one of the most dangerous plays in baseball this season with the new rules. If he sees five at-bats, he’s more than likely scoring and creating some offense this afternoon.
I’m leaning on this Over at a modest total of 6.5, considering THE BAT is projecting deGrom for just 75 pitchers and 14.2 outs. Getting all of the at-bats as the visitors, the dogs could certainly do some damage vs. the Texas bullpen. The wind could certainly help the right-handed hitters like Turner, Realmuto, Castellanos, and Alec Bohm — all of whom have good power.
Phillies vs Rangers game info
|Location:||Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX|
|Date:||Thursday, March 30, 2023|
|First pitch:||4:05 p.m. ET|
|TV:||NBC 10, Bally Southwest|
Phillies vs Rangers betting preview
Aaron Nola (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Nola led all pitchers in WAR last season and has a solid case for the Cy Young this year. He’s as durable as they come, has corrected some walk issues, and is in a contract year. He had a rough start in his last spring turn, but had also broken off contract talks with the front office earlier in the day. His fastball velocity has been a spot lower than usual, which is something to keep an eye on, as he should be sitting closer to 93 mph with his fastball.
Jacob deGrom (0-0, 0.00 ERA): deGrom will get the ball on Opening Day after signing a five-year, $185 million contract in the offseason. He will certainly be a Cy Young favorite if he can stay on the field, but quantity is a real concern here today. He’s thrown just 6.2 innings this spring, and hasn't thrown more than 55 pitches. I’d be very surprised if he saw 75 pitches today.
Trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the Rangers’ last six interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Rangers