Phillies vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Fading the Public on Too-High Total

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will open up a three-game series tonight in Queens.

The Mets are fresh off a day of rest after losing two of three games in Denver to the Rockies. The series loss dropped New York to 6-4 in its last 10 games and five back in the NL Central.

On the other hand, Philadelphia has played some good baseball. They split a series with the Braves coming into this game but with that said, are .500 in their last 10. 

Find out the best bet for this series opener in my MLB betting picks for Phillies vs. Mets below. 

Phillies vs Mets odds

Phillies vs Mets predictions

I'm not the biggest fan of Ranger Suarez, who will take the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies today. He's regressed consistently over the past three seasons with a sinker pitcher that has continually lost its juice.

With that said, he's due for a good start and certainly better than the 9.82 ERA he's produced. The expected ERA of below 4.5 tells us that much. He leads the handicap for why I'm grabbing the Under 8.5 as my best bet.

Before we take another look at the pitching matchup, let's pause for a moment and look at the weather conditions today in New York. There will be a significant reduction in runs with cool temperatures and winds blowing heavily to left field.

According to Ballparkpal.com, historically, this is good for an average decrease of runs by 18%. We also see a significant drop in fly balls, which is a big deal for a pitcher like New York Mets righty Kodai Senga, who has occasionally been prone to the hard-hit ball this season.

Back to the pitchers: I mentioned that Suarez is due for some positive regression at some point, and one of the reasons I expect it to happen today is because of the sinker. Despite losing some of its effectiveness, Suarez has made it clear he will stay loyal to this pitch as it continues to lead his pitching repertoire.

He could succeed with it today, as this Mets lineup isn't great against sinking pitches. From a batting average perspective, they're about league average. However, with only two players in today's lineup with a positive run value against them, you can make a strong case they struggle to convert runs. Therefore, Suarez isn't going to deliver a dominating performance. Still, I expect his looming positive regression and matchup to do enough to keep this one low. 

On the other side, Kodai Senga is one of my favorite young pitchers, and I expect him to continue to be solid. He should be highly rested, as the Mets noted they sent him home from Denver a day earlier to adjust to the altitude. I like his matchup here as well. Senga has struggled against teams that are patient at the plate — that's when his pitch count rises, and his walk issues start to show.

As we've documented before, you don't associate patience at the plate with the Phillies. They come into this matchup with baseball's sixth-highest swing rate and second-highest chase rate. I expect Senga to continue to be what he's been most of the season and deliver another solid performance. 

I projected this total at 7.5 and saw significant value at the current 8.5-run total. Expect both pitchers to deliver two solid performances, then hand things over to two somewhat-rested bullpens and all working on a day off. I also wouldn't be shocked if one or both of these teams show some rust after the holiday.

My best bet: Under 8.5 (+100 at SuperBook)

Phillies vs Mets moneyline analysis

I lean toward the Phillies here, primarily based on trends. 

My projections put this price at +112, and we're getting +115 around most markets. The thing that's interesting about this game is the thing that's interesting about all teams coming out of the series in Denver — they are a worthy fade.

A trend that's held up historically is a trend that's holding up this season. Teams traveling cross-country to play a game after a series against the Rockies are 0-3 in the proceeding game this season. It's an extremely small sample size, but it's also held up historically. It's also noteworthy that two of the three teams who lost that proceeding game did have a day of rest like the Mets will today. 

As far as some of the other trends surrounding this matchup, they don't favor Philly. They've won just one game in the Big Apple in their last seven meetings. In addition, they're 0-4 in their last four Game 1s of a series. I'll stay away from this game from a side perspective here, but given the situational spot for the Mets, I'd lean toward Philly at plus money.

Phillies vs Mets Over/Under analysis

With this Under play, we'll be fading the public in a big way tonight. As of publication, the Under has collected 79% of the wagers, according to Covers Consensus.

Again, what's being heavily discounted is the weather conditions and how much they'll reduce the ball's carry. I'm glad to be grabbing the Under tonight and would even double down on a live number if we see a run scored in the first inning.

The Under has been a solid bet anytime these two teams meet in New York over the last few years. After all, it's gone that way in 12 of their previous 17 meetings in New York.

In addition, the Under is 5-2 in the Met's last seven games against a left-handed starter, a number that makes sense when you see that they are just 21st in batting average against left-handed pitchers so far this season.

Phillies vs Mets game info

Starting pitchers

Ranger Suarez (0-1, 9.82 ERA): A WHIP at 2.00 and an ERA that says everything — yeah, it's been a rough start to the year for Suarez. His sinker has continued on the path of regression, and batters are hitting .500 against it this season. With all that in mind, there has to be some positive regression soon. Suarez has maintained a ground ball rate of over 50% and an expected ERA significantly lower than his actual ERA, two signs that he can't possibly be as bad as he's shown in a short sample size this season.  

Kodai Senga (4-3, 3.94 ERA): It's been a solid start to the season for the Mets signing, and you'd expect him to continue improving. If you'd like to nitpick, you say he walks too many batters and doesn't cause them to chase pitches quite enough, with both metrics ranking in the Bottom 20% of baseball. However, he's made up for that with a whiff rate and strikeout rate, as both metrics sit in the Top 20% of baseball. Senga's last two starts look like a pitcher that's improving. He will come into this game off a five-inning appearance against the Cubs, where he allowed three earned runs. 

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Trend to know

79% of the wagers on the total in this game were on the Over as of publication, per Covers Consensus. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs Mets

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