After scoring just one run across a three-game sweep in Houston, the Philadelphia Phillies bounced back in a big way Friday, steamrolling the Atlanta Braves 13-0 to open their weekend series.
With two of the division’s top arms set to take the mound, my Phillies vs. Braves predictions break down why both offenses will cool off tonight.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Saturday, June 28.
Phillies vs Braves prediction
My Phillies vs Braves best bet: Under 8 (-120 at FanDuel)
⚾ Pick Analysis
Spencer Schwellenbach hardly walks anyone, and the Atlanta Braves right-hander has seen his xBA drop to .247 in June.
Opponents are hitting just .206 off of him, which represents the best month of his season. Schwellenbach’s traditionally pitched well against the Philadelphia Phillies, rolling through six innings of one-run ball earlier in the season, and Philly sits just 16th in OPS this season against ground-ball pitchers.
The Braves are just 21st in wRC+ against left-handers and rank 25th over the last two weeks. Atlanta has struggled to hit for any sort of power, coming in with a .096 ISO over the last 14 days.
Hits will be hard to come by against Jesus Luzardo, who’s been brilliant with a 27% strikeout rate and solid .251 xBA.
With both starters firing on all cylinders, expect runs to be at a premium at Truist Park tonight.
Phillies vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Marcell Ozuna 2+ total bases
Jesus Luzardo 6+ strikeouts
🚀 SGP Analysis
Marcell Ozuna is 5-for-13 off Luzardo in his career, and he’s also hit .269 versus lefties as opposed to .242 against RHP. Coming in with a hit in three of his last four, the Braves' DH is a solid target to back.
Atlanta is striking out almost 24% of the time versus lefties, and Luzardo has racked up 6+ Ks in 10 of 16 starts this year.
Phillies vs Braves odds
Phillies vs Braves live odds
Phillies vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +135 | Atlanta -160
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-150) | Atlanta -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Phillies vs Braves trend
Atlanta has hit the game total Under in 21 of its last 35 games at home (+9.10 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.
How to watch Phillies vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Saturday, 6-28-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jesus Luzardo (7-3, 4.08 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Schwellenbach (6-4, 3.21 ERA) |
Phillies vs Braves latest injuries
Phillies vs Braves weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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