The Philadelphia Phillies face off against the Houston Astros in an interleague showdown on Saturday. This is a rematch of last year's World Series, which the Astros won in six games.
The Phillies won the first contest in this three-game set last night thanks to an excellent performance from Aaron Nola. Oddsmakers expect the 'Stros to bounce back today however with betting odds opening with Houston as a -133 home favorite. Here are my best free Phillies vs. Astros MLB picks and predictions for April 29.
Phillies vs Astros odds
Phillies vs Astros predictions
These teams combined for just four runs yesterday and oddsmakers are expecting another lower-scoring game with the total at 7.5. That makes plenty of sense when you consider the quality of these starting pitchers and the fact that both offenses have struggled.
To be fair, Phillies starter Zach Wheeler has a 4.73 ERA in five starts this year. However, his 2.64 FIP and expected ERA of 3.25 suggests that positive regression is incoming. Wheeler has a 2.82 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP in 69 starts over the last three seasons, so he has a proven track record.
Meanwhile, the Astros are sending Cristian Javier and his 3.21 ERA to the mound. The 25-year-old is coming off a breakout season when he pitched to a 2.54 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and had 194 strikeouts across 148 2/3 innings.
Both teams are missing some of their best hitters, which has led to them struggling at the dish this season. The Astros are a modest 18th in the majors in OPS (.699) and while the Phillies are seventh in OPS (.769) they've averaged just 3.5 runs per game over their last 10 contests.
While I'm leaning towards the Under 7.5, Philadelphia's shaky bullpen (4.65 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) has me more confident in the Under 5.5 on the first seven innings.
My best bet: First seven innings Under 5.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
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Phillies vs Astros moneyline analysis
The Phillies beat the Astros 3-1 last night and have now won six of their last seven games. Despite that defeat, the Astros have also been playing well lately going 6-2 in their previous eight contests.
The Phillies got some terrible news when first baseman Rhys Hoskins suffered a season-ending injury during spring training, and they won't have two-time MVP Bryce Harper back in the lineup till May. The Astros are missing a few top sluggers of their own, with Michael Brantley and six-time Silver Slugger recipient Jose Altuve sidelined by injuries.
Another Silver Slugger winner, Yordan Alvarez who was second in the majors in OPS last year (1.019) has missed the last four games with a neck injury and is questionable for today. They'll hope those studs can rejoin the lineup soon, since they typically have one of the best offenses in the majors but have fallen off a cliff this year.
Despite the injuries to Hoskins and Harper, the Phillies are seventh in the majors in OPS (.769). However, they've had a tough time generating runs because they rank near the bottom of the majors in runners left in scoring position per game. With their OPS dropping to just .660 in RISP situations they need to do a much better job of driving in runs.
While the Phillies have a weak bullpen the Astros have one of the best in the business. Houston's relievers are fifth in the majors in ERA (2.90) while ranking fourth in WHIP (1.11).
Phillies vs Astros Over/Under analysis
With my best bet the Under 5.5 on the 7 innings total, you can also see why I'd be leaning towards the full game O/U as well if the Phillies bullpen was more reliable.
The Statcast analytics for both lineups don't look promising either. The Astros are 27th in the majors in barrel rate and 20th in hard-hit rate while the Phillies are 18th in barrel rate and 22nd in hard-hit rate.
Another factor to keep in mind when betting the total in this contest is the weather. It's expected to be an extremely windy day in Houston with winds blowing towards the infield at 22 mph.
Phillies vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, April 29, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 5:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Phillies vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zack Wheeler (2-1, 4.73 ERA): Wheeler has gotten rocked in a couple of his starts this season but has looked solid in his other three. He's coming off a quality start against the Rockies where he surrendered three runs in six innings but gave up just three hits and fanned 11 batters.
The 32-year-old is the Top 10th percentile of all MLB pitchers in barrel rate and extension while ranking in the top 20th percentile in average exit velocity and expected slugging percentage.
Cristian Javier (2-0, 3.21 ERA): Javier had an ugly outing a few weeks ago against the Pirates but he has allowed just one earned run in each of his other three starts this season. He's coming off an excellent performance on the road where he limited the Braves to three hits while striking out 10 across six innings.
One concern about Javier has to be that his analytics are trending in the opposite direction from Wheeler's. Javier is in the bottom 20th percentile in barrel rate and the bottom 40th percentile in hard-hit rate with an xERA of 4.72 that's significantly worse than his actual ERA.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Under is 8-2 in Philadelphia's last 10 games while going 4-1 in Houston's previous five contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Astros
