Padres vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: Machado Highlight's San Diego Offense vs Gibson

Both offenses have decent pitching matchups today, but we especially like the matchup for Manny Machado and San Diego against the Phillies' Kyle Gibson. See how our MLB betting picks and cashing in on Manny & Co. raking.

Last Updated: May 19, 2022 12:03 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Manny Machado San Diego Padres MLB
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After splitting the first two games (by identical 3-0 scorelines), the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres wrap up a three-game series on Thursday afternoon.

Despite sitting six games back in the NL East at 18-19, it seems like the Phillies are beginning to hit their stride, winning five of their last seven. They are MLB betting home favorites today against San Diego, which currently sits at 23-14 on the season — just two games back from the Dodgers in the NL West.

Who will get the third and decisive game of this series? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Padres on Thursday, May 19.

Padres vs Phillies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Opening odds for today’s matchup were released last night, with the Phillies installed as -125 favorites. As of 11:30 a.m. ET, San Diego has taken some money, pushing Philly down to around -115 with the total remaining at the opening mark of 8.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Padres vs Phillies predictions

Picks made on 5/19/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Padres vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Thursday, May 19, 2022
First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network

Padres vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Yu Darvish (3-1, 4.62 ERA): Darvish has gotten off to one of the more bumpy starts of his career, getting shelled for nine runs in his second start of the season and giving up 13 earned runs in roughly 26 April innings. May has been, once again, bumpy, as he was hit hard for five earned runs in five innings against the Braves — and it could have been worse.

His fastball has been tremendous and has kept him in games, but other than that, not much is impressive: His barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and other advanced metrics rank below the league average... yet somehow he has gotten off to a 3-1 start.

Kyle Gibson (3-1, 4.10 ERA): It’s been a similar story for Gibson. In May, he’s averaging nearly a run per inning, in large part to him coughing up six earned runs in just over three innings of work his last time out against the Dodgers. However, Gibson seems more likely for a bit of positive regression as his expected ERA is closer to 3.00, and he’s thrown better pitches than the ERA suggests.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Matt Beaty LF (Out).
Phillies: Bryce Harper OF (Questionable), Didi Gregorius SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies

Padres vs Phillies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

This is a pitcher combo that currently leaves a lot to be desired — and one where I won’t rush to back either side. But I do give a slight edge to the Padres here, who have the more favorable pitching matchup.

Gibson’s struggles this year are primarily self-inflicted, as he has a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. When batters make contact, he’s moderately successful because he does a pretty good job of ensuring that it is soft contact.

That problem for him in this matchup is that he’ll be facing a patient Padres team that draws the third-most walks in baseball per game — and that number even gets better on the road.

The Dodgers are one of the two clubs drawing more walks per game than the Padres, and Gibson’s worst outing of the season came against them. Coincidence? I don’t think so.

On the other side, Darvish has been very hot or cold this season, which is a scary proposition to back. When he’s been on, however, he’s been excellent, and I like his matchup today. Not so much because Darvish does anything exceptionally well from a metric standpoint — it’s more that the Phillies aren't well-equipped to attack his weaknesses.

Patient lineups have hurt him... and that simply hasn’t been Philly. Its whiff rate is Top 10 in baseball and goes up to Top 5 when playing are in Citizens Bank Park.

Further pushing me away from a full-game pick is a desire to avoid involving both team's bullpens, as they provide too much uncertainty from a matchup perspective. So we'll grab San Diego on the first five innings moneyline.

My projections give them around a 52% chance to be leading after five innings, so this is a slight edge to grab, particularly when I can push in the event of a tie.

Prediction: Padres first five innings moneyline (-106 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

This is a tricky handicap because both of these pitchers have struggled pretty mightily from time to time, but both are due for positive regression.

However, conditions in Citizens Bank Park will be favorable for the longball today. It’s going to be humid and hovering around the 70s and these lineups have some decent power, especially if Bryce Harper can go (he remains questionable for this matchup).

For the Padres, guys like Luke Voit and Manny Machado have exceptionally high barrel rates, as do Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins for the Phillies. With two pitchers that have been prone to hard-hit balls, I’ll take my chances.

My projections see this essentially as a coin-flip proposition, and one I don’t think has a lot of an edge.

But with the conditions the way they’ll be today in Philly and the Padres being due for a decent outburst at the plate, it’s enough to make me side with the Over.

Prediction: Over 8 (-105 at DraftKings)

Best bet

As mentioned above, I have a relatively strong lean towards San Diego’s offense having a nice day. They are patient at the plate, put runners in scoring position, and should do a decent job of frustrating Gibson.

Because of that, I will look to back a Padres batter.

Manny Machado has a decent sample size of success against Gibson. He’s made 31 PAs against him and has a .292 BA. I want to ensure that I’m taking advantage of his high walk rate against Gibson, with the best way to do that is to take Machado to record a run.

I price this at around -200. Machado’s high barrel rate — and Gibson’s issues with hard-hit balls — puts a home run in play, along with scoring on an extra-base hit the most likely avenues.

I’ll gladly back this today as I see a considerable edge here.

Pick: Manny Machado to record a run (-120 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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