The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will wrap up a three-game series tonight on national television.
This will be a rubber match for the two sides after San Diego took Game 1 of the series with a thrilling 8-7 victory to open things up. Los Angeles would get its revenge one night later with a 5-2 win, but what do my MLB picks like in tonight's Sunday Night Baseball matchup?
Find out in my Padres vs Dodgers predictions for this April 14 affair, and be sure to check out our favorite Padres vs. Dodgers prop bets.
Padres vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Runs should be on the cards tonight in this prime-time duel.
Each pitcher boasts some impressive numbers during the year but comes with the caveat of some poor underlying metrics following them. In addition to that, you'll see comfortable temperatures with winds blowing out. That's a good baseline for us, along with my projection of 9.8 runs. Now, let's look a little deeper.
As I mentioned, James Paxton will take the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers with an impressive start to the season, But he's due for at least some regression. Following his gaudy 1.64 ERA to start this season is an expected ERA over two total runs higher.
In addition, Paxton has a hard-hit rate that sits in the Bottom 25% of the league, which has followed him similarly throughout his career. The San Diego Padres have more than enough players, including Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth, who are well-equipped to take advantage of this.
On the other hand, Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Padres.
I don't need much of an introduction for Darvish, who has been an elite hurler for many years. He's done that by being a perennial strikeout thrower and not being hit by many bats. There's reason to wonder if he struggles in that aspect today.
Even though it has struck out a lot to start the season, this Dodgers team hasn't historically been a group that does that. I expect to correct it with more data, and this is one of the places that starts. Once Darvish struggles to get Ks, he'll have to put more stuff across the plate, and I expect L.A.'s robust hitters to take advantage of that.
Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Jake Cronenworth to hit a home run
I'm pairing my best bet with one Padre player to go yard. The most well-equipped to do that is Cronenworth. Not only will he be aided by the winds blowing out to right field, but he'll also have the distinction of leading the San Diego players in hard-hit rate. This is an area where Paxton has struggled the most this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Padres vs Dodgers live odds
Padres vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-134) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+114)
- Moneyline: San Diego +144 | Los Angeles -172
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-122)
Padres vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Los Angeles is 7-3 on the ML in the last 10 games against San Diego
- The Padres have been a great Under bet lately, sitting with a 3-7 O/U mark in their last 10
- As for the Dodgers, their O/U mark in the last 10 is 6-4
Padres vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have hit the run line in 80 of their last 141 games (+21.35 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers
Padres vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Yu Darvish (0-1, 3.86 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | James Paxton (2-0, 1.64 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Padres vs Dodgers weather
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