Sunday Night Baseball is a good one this week between two NL West foes.
The Dodgers (91-41) have the best record in MLB and at this point, it’s World Series or bust. They’ll host the Padres (74-60) on Sunday Night, another team with playoff aspirations as they currently hold the second Wild Card spot in the National League.
After splitting the first two games, which team will take Game 3 on Sunday Night Baseball?
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday, September 4 to find out.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers opened -151 but the line has widened at most spots. Currently, they reside between -152 and -165 depending on the book. The total opened at 9 but has moved to 9.5 across the board.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Padres vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 9/4/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Padres vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Sunday, September 4, 2022
• First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Padres vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Mike Clevinger (5-5, 3.59 ERA): Clevinger’s first full season in San Diego hasn’t been awful, but it also hasn’t been quite as successful as he and the club would like. He has a 4.12 xERA and 4.36 FIP this season while posting the lowest strikeout rate (20.4%) of his career. His 6.1% barrel rate is also a cause for concern.
Caleb Ferguson (1-0, 1.85 ERA): The left-hander technically gets the start, but he’ll be working as an opener for Ryan Pepiot. Splitting time with the big club and the minors this season, Pepiot has a 4.02 ERA in the MLB and a 2.58 ERA at Triple-A this season. Los Angeles is dealing with injuries to Tony Gonsolin and Walker Buehler, forcing Dave Roberts to get a little creative with the pitching rotation.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Dodgers are 65-19 in their last 84 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers
Padres vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
This is an interesting game to handicap considering that the Dodgers are using an opener. Ryan Pepiot is expected to get the bulk of action behind opener Caleb Fergusen. Pepiot has made seven starts this season and while his 4.02 ERA is decent, his 1.40 WHIP is concerning. Most recently, he allowed two runs over six innings against the Miami Marlins while striking out seven batters.
The Padres remade their lineup at the trade deadline only to lose star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. to both a season-ending wrist injury in addition to an 80-game PED suspension. What’s left is a solid if unspectacular lineup that ranks 11th in wOBA and eight in wRC+ over the last 15 days.
Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Padres, and I have to say that I’m concerned with his profile. His strikeout rate (20.4%) of his career and he doesn’t appear to be making up for it in other areas. His xERA (4.12) and FIP (4.36) are both above 4.00, and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact (6.1% barrel rate).
By now, it’s common knowledge that the Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball — if not the very best. Recent performance hasn’t been any different, as they rank second in wOBA and third in wRC+ across the last 15 days.
The Padres have struggled when stepping up in competition lately, going 1-6 in their last seven games against a team with a winning record.
The Dodgers have been cashing tickets all season long. They’re 44-14 in their last 58 home games against a team with a winning record, 65-19 in their last 84 home games overall, and 52-17 in their last 69 games against the NL West. Now’s not the time to jump off board.
Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-152 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
Early money came in on the Over, pushing the total from 9 at open to 9.5 at current. Is that movement justified?
The Dodgers have been an offensive machine all season. They rank first in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ in addition to numerous other categories. There are few easy outs in a deep lineup that has plenty of star power led by Freddie Freeman (148 OPS+), Mookie Betts (148 OPS+), Trea Turner (127 OPS+), and Will Smith (127 OPS+).
They’ve been trending to the Over, surpassing the total in each of their last four home games. The Over is also 4-0 across their last four during Game 3 of a series and 5-2 in their last seven against a team with a winning record. Clevinger’s 6.1% barrel rate is a big concern against a lineup this potent. Ten of Clevinger’s 16 starts this season have gone over the total.
The Padres have plenty of pop in the lineup led by superstar Juan Soto (137 OPS+) and face an unproven pitcher in Pepiot. Despite showing promise at the Triple-A level, the right-hander does have a concerning 1.40 WHIP and 4.54 xERA across seven starts in the MLB this season.
The Over is 6-1 in the Padres’ last seven games against the NL West and I believe that trend continues Sunday Night.
Prediction: Over 9.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Best bet
I’m rocking with the Dodgers as Sunday Night Baseball’s best bet.
Mike Clevinger has a lot of concerning parts about his profile in 2022 and his ERA on the road (3.98) is over a full run higher than it is at Petco Park (2.97). The Dodgers have been terrific at home, winning 65 of their last 84 games at Dodger Stadium.
One of my favorite angles has been the Dodgers on the run line this season. They’ve been the best team in baseball by a significant margin with a massive +289 run differential. That’s over 100 runs better than the next closest team, the New York Yankees (+185).
I’m backing the Dodgers against the run line -1.5 at +125 odds.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+125 at bet365)
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