Orioles vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: The Bronx is Booming

It's the third of a four-game set between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles tonight in the Big Apple.

The Yankees have handled the first two games of this series, winning each by multiple runs. It's a continuation of New York's good play lately as the Yanks have won seven of their last 10 games, trimming their AL East deficit to single digits. Things have been the opposite for the O's. Baltimore has hit the regression that plenty expected, going 4-6 in its last 10 while losing a game on the divisional-leading Tampa Bay Rays. 

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Orioles vs. Yankees on Wednesday, July.

Looking for today's game? Check out our Orioles vs. Yankees picks for Thursday, July 6.

Orioles vs Yankees odds

Orioles vs Yankees predictions

Tonight's matchup features two pitchers with looming negative regression and one that has allowed multiple home runs in three straight outings. We're grabbing the Over as our best bet. 

Before we get into the breakdown of this matchup, let's look at some other contributing factors surrounding tonight's clash. For starters, my projections had this total at 10.5. That's why it surprised me to see a flat number of 9 available at FanDuel. Both of the first two games of this series have gone Over, which has continued some trends for these two teams and some that are matchup specific:

• The Over is 4-0 for the Orioles in the last four games against the AL East.
• The Over is 5-2 in the Yankees' last seven games overall.
• The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams.
• The Over is 6-1 in the Oriole's last seven games, with a total set at 9-10.5
• The Over is 7-0-1 in the Orioles' last eight games against a right-handed starter.

That's a whole lot of Over trends, and sometimes trends that are that strong are ones you can't simply ignore. That's the crux of this play tonight, but it's also a fade of some of these pitchers.

Randy Vasquez will take the mound for the Yankees tonight, and we have just two starts of data for him. Those are promising data points, too. He's given up just two earned runs combined in those starts. However, significant expected regression is coming, and Baltimore is a team that can provide that in a flash. We'll talk more about that soon but let's address Dean Kremer first. 

He was awful in his last outing when he allowed seven against the Minnesota Twins. A vital issue for Kremer has been the home run. He's given up multiple dingers in three consecutive starts, and his flyball rate of 29% illustrates that those issues can continue tonight against the Yankees. We're not going to be reliant on multiple home runs to cash the total, but it certainly adds to the different avenues that this could get to the window.

After stumbling initially with Aaron Judge sidelined, New York is closer to returning to its original hard-hitting ways. The Yankees rank in the top half of MLB in home runs over the last two weeks and have jumped back into the Top 5 in baseball in barrel rate. Getting a starting pitcher on the mound who is in the Bottom 15% of barrel rate and hard-hit rate is the ideal matchup for them.

Grab the Over tonight in New York. There's much to suggest we're on the right side, including pending negative regression for both pitchers.

My best bet: Over 9 (-115 at FanDuel)

Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay

Over 9 (-115)

Gleyber Torres 2+ total bases (+100)

Adley Rutschman 2+ total bases (+125)

+556 at FanDuel

We're keeping things extremely simple for the same-game parlay this evening. We're expecting some fireworks when these two teams take the field. So we're using a total of Over 9 to anchor this. Then we will take the players' bases Over with the two best matchups. Those players? 

Gleyber Torres for the Yankees is our first target. Among healthy players, Torres is the most consistent fastball hitter on the New York team this season. And he's going to see a bunch of those fastballs tonight. He's the only healthy player on the roster that ranks in the Top 5 of hard-hit rate against the cutter while hitting over .300 against it.

Next is Adley Rutschman for the Orioles. Rutschman checks all the boxes for success tonight. He's the third-best line-drive hitter for the Orioles with a rank of 25%. That's the most likely area of trouble for Vasquez, as his line drive rate is well above league average. Rutschman also bats over .300 against the primary two pitches for Vasquez, the fastball and sinker. He seems well-poised to smoke the ball tonight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Orioles vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The range of outcomes that we could get from Vasquez tonight is high. That's why I tried to isolate the thing with the most substantial data behind it as my best bet. Because of the former, though, I don't have a strong lean on a side tonight.

As I mentioned, regression is coming for Vasquez. Holding an expected ERA of 4.13 versus an actual ERA of 1.74 just isn't sustainable, particularly when you're giving up a line drive rate of over 28%, four points higher than the league average. The question that has to be answered is if the Orioles can deliver that regression to the degree they'll need to win that game.

Can they attack those line drive issues? Maybe, but the data says they hit the fifth-fewest in the league. Do they hit Vasquez's primary pitches, such as the fastball and sinker? Yes. At least when it comes to hitting the ball hard. Depending on the lineup, the O's could have up to four players with a hard-hit rate of over 50% against the fastball. Additionally, they'll have up to six players with a hard-hit rate of over 60% against the sinker. 

The value here is definitely on the O's. But I needed close to -110 to play it, given the issues of Kremer. I don't suspect we'll get to that, but I'll grab it if we do. 

As we talked about above, we're on the Over tonight. We spent the entirety of our best bet section without mentioning the weather conditions tonight. That's a good indicator that it's a strong play. They'll be favorable for us, though. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s, with winds blowing out to left field. On average, that's been good for a historical increase of runs by 8% and home runs by 25%.

Trend to know

The Over is 7-0-1 in the Orioles' last eight games against a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees

Orioles vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Dean Kremer (8-4, 5.04 ERA): Things haven't gone well for Kremer this season, and they could be worse. Critical indicators are a WHIP of 1.42 and an expected ERA exceeding 6. If the season ended today, it would end with Kremer having the second-worst hard-hit rate of his career. That's been the critical issue for him this season. A four-seam fastball and cutter make up nearly 60% of his pitching arsenal. While the fastball has been decent this season, the cutter has been destroyed with a run-value of -7 and a wOBA over .410. That and a flyball rate well above league average are some of the big reasons Kremer has seen his ERA explode to over 5.00 this season after being 3.23 a year ago. 

Randy Vasquez (1-1, 1.74 ERA): The rookie has yet to face much adversity in his first two starts. He gave up just two earned runs in over four innings to the San Diego Padres and followed it up with a spotless five-inning start against the Chicago White Sox a week later. An expected ERA of over 4.00 combined with a line-drive rate above the league average makes you think that adversity is coming. Vasquez uses a high mix of five pitches. The primary of them are a four-seam fastball, sinker, and cutter. All three pitches have yielded a batting average below .200. However, the cutter and sinker have posted an above-hard-hit rate. Another metric to make you think regression is coming. 

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