Nationals vs Phillies Picks and Predictions: Philadelphia Stays Hot

After trading both Juan Soto and Josh Bell, the Nationals' offense is as bare as ever. With Kyle Gibson and a hot Phillies team in town, fade the home team on Friday night in DC. Read more in our Nationals vs. Phillies betting picks.

Last Updated: Aug 5, 2022 1:33 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Friday marks the second matchup of a four-game NL East series with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the Washington Nationals. Thursday night’s game saw an early ending with the game being called after just 4 1-2 innings due to weather, giving the Phillies a 5-4 win.

Now that we should see these teams square off for a full bout, can the Phillies find victory once again, or will the Nationals get revenge for last night’s contest?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Nationals vs Phillies on Friday, August 5.

Nationals vs Phillies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Phillies were unveiled as consensus favorites of -180 on Thursday morning and were bet all the way up to -225 before some buy-back occurred, moving the line to its current resting place of -195. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 8.5 and has since moved to 9.0.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Nationals vs Phillies predictions

Picks made on 8/05/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Nationals vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Friday, August 5, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: Apple TV+

Nationals vs Phillies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Josiah Gray (7-7, 4.59 ERA): Gray’s sophomore campaign continues to disappoint, and I'm not sure we will see him turn it around. While the right-hander's season-long numbers are very troubling, Washington’s right-hander has recently been in particularly poor form. Over his last six starts, Gray is 1-3 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. In Gray’s defense, some of those bad starts came against strong offenses, including St. Louis, Los Angeles, and Seattle. However, the worst start in that stretch came against the lowly Marlins offense, a game in which Gray surrendered six earned runs on 10 hits through just five and 2-3 innings pitched. Profiling as a high-strikeout, high-danger pitcher, Gray likes to set up his slider with a fastball that either blows past the hitter or gets blasted to the outfield, with really no in-between. This is evidenced by the fact that hitters have an astonishing .612 xSLG against his four-seamer this season.

Kyle Gibson (6-4, 4.60 ERA): Like Gray, Gibson's season has been extremely disappointing thus far. That being said, Gibson has started to turn it around recently. Over his last four starts, Gibson is 2-1 with a 3.47 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. This strong stretch even includes a game where Gibson got shelled by the Cubs, a contest in which he allowed six earned runs on six hits through four and 1-3 innings pitched. The fact that his numbers are still this low over those four games speaks to how great he has been. Boasting a six-pitch arsenal with great variability, it's not easy to hit against Gibson as he keeps you on your toes.

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Kyle Gibson has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his last 17 starts (59%). Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Phillies Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Phillies

Nationals vs Phillies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

Entering this contest in good form, Philadelphia is won seven of its last eight games. I expect this trend to continue as right-hander Kyle Gibson is slated to take the mound for the Phillies.

Gibson’s confidence should be extremely high in this game due to his recent stretch of strong performances. Philadelphia is won in seven of Gibson’s last 10 starts, and this Nationals lineup has not done anything special against Gibson in the past. Through 35 career plate appearances against the Phillies’ right-hander, this current Nationals roster possesses a .258 BA, .387 SLG, and .313 wOBA.

Going up against Gibson and the rest of this pitching staff, Washington may struggle to generate runs. When facing right-handed pitchers, the Nationals rank just 21st in the league in BA, 23rd in SLG, 23rd in OPS, 24th in wOBA, and 29th in hard hit percentage since the beginning of July. Due to this stretch of poor hitting, Washington is lost 17 of their last 23 games.

This Washington lineup should struggle mightily to produce any offense after trading away its two best hitters in Juan Soto and Josh Bell. The injury to veteran slugger Nelson Cruz certainly doesn't help either.

Prediction: Phillies -1.5 (+100 at PointsBet)

Over/Under analysis

While the Phillies pitching staff should shut Washington down, they may struggle to generate runs against right-hander Josiah Gray. We are getting a fairly generous number on this game’s total, which is primarily due to Gray’s recent poor run of starts. However, his best start of that stretch actually came against today’s opponent.

Through two starts against Philadelphia this season, Gray is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. The 24-year-old's biggest problem is allowing the long-ball, particularly with his fastball. This lineup without Bryce Harper relies on just a few hitters for power, including Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and Rhys Hoskins.

While Schwarber has fared well against Gray, Castellanos possesses a mere .167 SLG against Gray, while Hoskins is 0-2 with a walk when those two have squared off. Since July 1, the Nationals’ relief pitching ranks eighth in WHIP and sixth in hard-hit percentage. Due to last night’s rainout, the entire Washington bullpen should be able to go for this contest.

Prediction: Under 9 (-114 at FanDuel)

Best bet

The play I am most confident in is for the Phillies’ starter to have yet another good outing. With Soto and Bell off the roster and Cruz projected to miss another game due to injury, the Nationals lineup is about as underwhelming as you can get.

Looking at the projected starting lineup for today’s game, only one guy on Washington possesses an xBA over .250 (Keibert Ruiz). With the sheer amount of inexperience in the Nationals’ lineup, I expect Gibson’s six-pitch arsenal to give them a lot of trouble and keep them guessing through the first half of this game.

Pick: Gibson Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130 at bet365)

MLB parlays

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