Blue Jays vs Twins Picks and Predictions: Mahle Delivers for Minnesota in Debut

Tyler Mahle makes his Minnesota debut tonight, after toiling away in Cincinnati. With his play outside of Cincy in mind, there's no doubt he'll deliver for the Twins against the Blue Jays — check out our MLB betting picks for more.

Last Updated: Aug 5, 2022 1:37 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Minnesota Twins will fight to maintain their playoff positions at Target Field on Friday night.

The Blue Jays currently hold the No. 1 wild card spot and are 9-3 since the All-Star break. The Twins cling to the AL Central lead by one game over the Guardians but are a modest 5-6 since the All-Star break, and dropped Game 1 of this series to Toronto, 9-3.

Can Minnesota get off the mat on Friday night? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Twins on Friday, August 5.

Blue Jays vs Twins odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Blue Jays opened as tepid road favorites of -123 and have remained at or near that price at the majority of sportsbooks. The consensus opening total was 9.0, but bettors have forced most sites to knock that line down to 8.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Blue Jays vs Twins predictions

Picks made on 8/5/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Blue Jays vs Twins game info

Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Friday, August 5, 2022
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports

Blue Jays vs Twins betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios (8-4, 4.96 ERA): After posting two straight months with an ERA above 6.00, Jose Berrios recovered by recording a 3.00 ERA over six starts in July. Four of those six efforts resulted in quality starts. Berrios has faced the Twins once this season, and he held them to two runs over seven frames on June 4 while striking out 13 batters.

Tyler Mahle (5-7, 4.40 ERA): Mahle makes his Twins debut in this spot after being brought in from the Cincinnati Reds. Mahle has pitched well enough to pick up three wins in his last four starts despite being on one of the worst teams in the majors. Dating back to May 29 — a stretch of nine starts — Mahle owns a 2.83 ERA.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-1-1 in the Twins’ last eight games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Twins

Blue Jays vs Twins picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Tyler Mahle should make his Minnesota debut a successful one on Friday night.

Mahle is finally free of the launching pad that is Great American Ball Park, after six seasons there. He authored a 5.02 ERA in Cincinnati, as opposed to a 3.74 ERA everywhere else. He was bludgeoned for 61 homers at his old haunt, but only 28 homers as a visiting hurler. 

Opponents are batting just .189 against Mahle outside of Cincinnati this season, with a mere three home runs. Neither pitchers nor hitters have had a clear advantage at Target Field since the park was opened in 2010, and that should suit Mahle just fine. 

Once Mahle exits, a fortified Twins bullpen should hold the line. Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer have each pitched a scoreless inning for Minnesota since being acquired at the trade deadline.

Countering for the Blue Jays is former Twins ace Jose Berrios, who’s been getting hammered on the road all year long. His ERA as a visiting pitcher this season is 7.15, which contrasts sharply with his 3.23 ERA at Rogers Centre. 

Look for Minnesota to jump on Berrios early and coast to victory behind Mahle.

Prediction: Twins moneyline (+110 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

There should be plenty of runs crossing the plate in this Friday night clash.

Several Twins batters are performing well at the plate despite their team’s recent run of mediocrity. Byron Buxton paces the club with a 1.024 OPS (min. 20 at-bats) since the All-Star break. Close behind is Jose Miranda, with a .994 OPS, and Nick Gordon, who owns a .964 OPS in the same span. 

In addition to facing Berrios, Minnesota will also get the chance to attack a modest Blue Jays bullpen that’s 14th by ERA in 2022 (3.88).

Toronto’s hitters are always a threat to break a game open, and while Mahle may hold them in check for a while, the Twins’ 16th-ranked relief corps (3.95 ERA) may not have as much luck.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on a tear since the second half of the year began, hitting .404 with two homers and nine RBI, including a three-run bomb on Thursday night. Matt Chapman has also been heating up, as he leads his club in OPS since the All-Star break (1.216).

Trend bettors should note that the Over is 22-8-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 31 road games against right-handed starters, and 11-4 in the Twins’ last 15 games with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5.

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Best bet

The Twins’ moneyline price is tempting, but not nearly as alluring as their price to plate the game’s first run.

Mahle — a longtime member of the NL — should have the Blue Jays on their back foot early on. That should enable the high-octane Twins lineup to build an early lead courtesy of Berrios. 

Look for Buxton, Luis Arraez, and Carlos Correa to greet Berrios rudely and get Minnesota on the board first.

Pick: Twins to score first (+130 at Caesars)


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