MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Saturday, August 29

Saturday’s MLB slate is a loaded one, with two doubleheaders adding even more opportunities to a card featuring a strong mix of short favorites and massive underdogs in appealing individual and team matchups.

Read on for my MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 29.

MLB moneyline picks for August 29

Matchup	Pick
BOS vs NYY	54%
LAD vs DET	62%
CWS vs MIN	46%
PIT vs STL	54%
CIN vs CHC	65%
SEA vs TOR	51%
MIA vs  WAS	49%
ARI vs SF	56%
COL vs ATL	66%
HOU vs NYM	46%
KAN vs CLE	57%
SD vs  TB	54%
BOS vs NYY	56%
TEX vs MIL	60%
ARI vs SF	52%
BAL vs ATH	58%
PHI vs LAA	71%

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-29.

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 29

Red Sox vs Yankees Game 1: Yankees (54¢)

Yankees win probability: 54%

Taking the Yankees here. Two teams are basically mirror images record-wise, but NYY's bats have been a touch hotter, and Rodon's got the better recent stuff than Bennett. Not a blowout, just a small, real edge in a tight one.

Dodgers vs Tigers: Dodgers (62¢)

Dodgers win probability: 62%

Dodgers, easily. Detroit's offense has been an actual disaster the last week, ranking dead last in baseball. Doesn't matter that LA's bats are cold too; this gap is too wide to ignore. Honestly surprised it's not higher given how badly Detroit's swinging it.

White Sox vs Twins: White Sox (46¢)

White Sox win probability: 46%

Going against the room on this one and rolling with the White Sox. Chicago's had the best bats in baseball this week, and Minnesota's bullpen has completely fallen apart, with an ERA north of 11. I think their bullpen collapse gets exploited today, so I like the underdog here.

Pirates vs Cardinals: Cardinals (54¢)

Cardinals win probability: 54%

I like the Cardinals here. Pittsburgh's pitching depth is fine, but their lineup has been historically bad lately, posting the league's worst wRC+. Hard to score zero runs and win baseball games. Feels like a fair number for St. Louis, maybe even a little light.

Reds vs Cubs: Cubs (65¢)

Cubs win probability: 65%

I'm rolling with the Cubs. Hot bats, sharp bullpen, and a clean matchup edge with Gausman on the mound. Cincinnati's respectable but not special. Everything in the recent numbers backs Chicago here, and nothing about this matchup surprises me.

Mariners vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays (51¢) 

Blue Jays win probability: 51%

Sliding with Toronto here. Records are almost identical (65-70 vs 64-70), and both offenses have been mediocre lately, but TOR's wRC+ sits a touch higher (98 vs 95) and their bullpen has been just as sharp. This one should be close, but every input points in the same small direction, so I'm not fighting it.

Marlins vs Nationals: Marlins (49¢)

Marlins win probability: 49%

I like Miami and am going against the room. Better record, and Washington's bullpen has been rough this week, posting an ERA over 6. I like the Marlins' pitching depth enough here to take the slight underdog and run with it.

Diamondbacks vs Giants Game 1: Diamondbacks (56¢)

Diamondbacks win probability: 56%

Arizona in both games. Season-long, they're just the better team with a much better record, sharper bullpen numbers, and that holds up even with San Francisco's bats running a little warm lately. I think that quality gap shows up today in Game 1. 

Royals vs Guardians: Guardians (57¢)

Guardians win probability: 57%

I'm going with Cleveland. Their bullpen has been the best in baseball this week, full stop, with a sub-1 ERA territory. That kind of shutdown relief covers for a lot, and this number tracks with just how dominant that pen's been lately.

Astros vs Mets: Astros (46¢)

Astros win probability: 46%

I'll roll with Houston, and fade the public again. They boast a better record, better recent bats, and a real gap in bullpen quality that favors Houston. I think that pen edge is the difference-maker in a tight one. 

Padres vs Rays: Rays (54¢)

Rays win probability: 54%

I'll roll with Tampa Bay. Both squads have nasty bullpens right now, so this comes down to overall team quality, and TB's record and ability to manufacture runs are just a level up. A modest number for how consistent the Rays have been all year.

Red Sox vs Yankees Game 2: Yankees (56¢) 

Yankees win probability: 56%

I'm going with the Yankees again in the nightcap. Same story as the opener; the Yankees' recent bat production and starting pitching depth tilt slightly in their favor. A touch higher number than the day game, which makes sense given how the roles and rest shake out between games in a doubleheader.

Rockies vs Braves: Braves (66¢)

Braves win probability: 66%

I'll take the Braves. Atlanta's a legitimate contender with a strong recent bat (95 wRC+) and a much better season record (79-55), while Colorado's been scuffling all year (52-82) and their pen has been shaky too. The gap in team quality is wide enough that I'm honestly a little surprised the price isn't higher.

Rangers vs Brewers: Brewers (60¢)

Brewers win probability: 60%

I'm taking the Brewers here. They've got the best record in baseball for a reason (83-51), and I'm not fading that at home even with Texas swinging it well lately (136 wRC+ last week). Their bullpen's been shakier than the Brewers' during this stretch, so I'm sticking with the more complete team.

Diamondbacks vs Giants Game 2: Diamondbacks (52¢) 

Diamondbacks win probability: 52%

I'll go with Arizona again in the nightcap. Same read as Game 1; they boast the better overall roster, better bullpen depth, and a close price on the board. I'm sticking with the better team in both matchups today rather than overreacting to San Francisco's recent hot stretch at the plate.

Orioles vs Athletics: Orioles (58¢)

Orioles win probability: 58%

I'll roll with the Orioles. They clearly have the better roster on paper, and their bullpen's been more reliable this week too. Lines up with the gap in overall team quality here. Nothing fancy, just the better team winning.

Phillies vs Angels: Phillies (71¢)

Phillies win probability: 71%

I like the Phillies to win. Better record, sharper bullpen, hotter bats; the Phillies check every box. Highest number on the whole slate, and nothing about the recent numbers makes me want to argue with that.

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