It’s do or die for the New York Mets on Sunday afternoon. They must win to have a chance of making the playoffs.
My Mets vs. Marlins predictions see their best player, Juan Soto, coming up big, as he so often has down the stretch. Let’s take a closer look at my September 28 MLB picks.
Mets vs Marlins prediction
Mets vs Marlins best bet: Juan Soto Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-134)
Juan Soto has done everything he can to help the New York Mets sneak into the playoffs. As the importance of games has increased, so has his level of play.
Soto’s recorded 2+ hits + runs + RBI in 14 of his past 20 games, averaging 2.4 during that span. He's produced consistently throughout, never going back-to-back games without clearing his line.
He had a quiet showing in Saturday’s shutout victory and is in a good spot to get right back on track in the regular season finale.
Soto will face off against Edward Cabrera, who has struggled since mid-August. Cabrera has allowed at least three runs in four of his past five starts. This includes an eight-hit, six-run performance on August 30 against these same Mets.
Cabrera has also allowed more power and a higher WHIP when facing left-handed bats, which plays into Soto’s hands as someone who also feasts on right-handed pitching.
As a cherry on top, Cabrera leans most heavily on changeups and curveballs vs. lefties. Soto possesses ISOs of .246 and .333 against those pitches. Expect him to make plenty of noise.
Mets vs Marlins same-game parlay (SGP)
Jakob Marsee has produced exceptional numbers vs. left-handed pitchers this season, hitting .333 with a .236 ISO. He has been especially good against the fastball (.364 ISO), which Sean Manaea throws on nearly 60% of his pitches to lefties.
While Marsee could cause some problems, I ultimately expect the Mets to grind out a victory in this must-win game. Cabrera isn’t pitching well, and most of New York’s top bats — Soto, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, etc. — are hot at the plate.
Mets vs Marlins SGP
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
- Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 total bases
- Mets moneyline
Mets vs Marlins odds
- Moneyline: New York -130 | Miami +110
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+135) | Miami +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mets vs Marlins trend
Juan Soto has produced 2+ hits + runs + RBI in six of his last eight away games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs Marlins.
How to watch Mets vs Marlins and game info
| Location | loanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date | Sunday, September 28, 2025 |
| First pitch | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, FDSNFL |
| Mets starting pitcher | Sean Manaea (2-4, 5.80 ERA) |
| Marlins starting pitcher | Edward Cabrera (7-7, 3.66 ERA) |
Mets vs Marlins latest injuries
Mets vs Marlins weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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