There is a full 15-game MLB slate on Sunday, with plenty of MLB player props to choose from.
I have compiled my three best home run props for Sunday, featuring a Red Sox double-dip with Trevor Story and Alex Bregman.
Here are my free MLB home run picks for Sunday, September 7.
Best MLB home run props today
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Trout (+310) -
Story (+500) - Bregman (+550)
- 💲 +12440 parlay💲
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HR Prop #1: Mike Trout
The Los Angeles Angels host the Athletics to kick off the late window of Sunday’s MLB slate. Despite another poor year from Los Angeles, Mike Trout’s power numbers remain strong.
This season, Trout ranks in the top third of the league in expected slugging percentage (xSLG), barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. That success is likely to continue against right-hander Luis Severino, who takes the mound for the Athletics.
Trout is 2-for-4 against Severino with a 1.250 slugging percentage and 1.008 xSLG. One of those two hits was a home run.
HR Prop #2: Trevor Story
Sunday’s final game features the Arizona Diamondbacks hosting the Boston Red Sox. Right-hander Ryne Nelson gets the ball for Arizona, and he should serve as a good fade candidate in the home run market.
Entering this matchup, Nelson ranks in the fifth percentile in average exit velocity and the 15th percentile in hard-hit rate. Subsequently, he has given up nine home runs across his past 10 starts.
Boston’s Trevor Story could keep that trend going, considering he has homered four times over the past two weeks. Story also ranks in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity and 76th percentile in hard-hit rate.
HR Prop #3: Alex Bregman
Another Red Sox hitter to consider Sunday is Alex Bregman. Despite a lack of home runs recently, Bregman’s analytics remain strong.
This season, he ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Furthermore, he possesses a strong track record against Nelson.
They’ve only squared off once prior to Sunday, but Bregman went 1-for-3 in that outing with that hit being a home run.
Today’s HR parlay
Mike Trout to hit a home run
Trevor Story to hit a home run
Alex Bregman to hit a home run
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Aaron Judge, Yankees
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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