We have the fourth and final game of this NL West intradivisional series as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Francisco Giants.
Los Angeles has won each of the first three games of this series, covering the run line all three times. Will the Dodgers complete the sweep, or can the Giants pull off the upset?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs Dodgers.
Giants vs Dodgers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers were unveiled as consensus favorites of -195 on Saturday morning and have since been bet up to -215. The consensus opening total was unveiled at 8.5 and was immediately bet down to 7.5 until some buyback occurred which moved the total to its current position at 8.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Giants vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 7/24/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Giants vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Sunday, July 24, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Bay Area, SNLA
Giants vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Alex Cobb (3-4, 4.09 ERA): While Cobb’s surface-level stats are not the greatest, he has begun to turn it around recently. Over his last seven starts, Cobb is 0-2 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. In his most recent outing, Cobb threw 7 1-3 shutout innings while allowing just four hits against Milwaukee.
Clayton Kershaw (7-2, 2.13 ERA): While Kershaw has been dominant all year long, he has particularly been in great form of late. Over his last three starts, Kershaw is 2-0 with a 0.40 ERA and 0.50 WHIP. In his most recent outing, Kershaw was on the verge of throwing a perfect game against the Angels before allowing a lead-off double in the eighth inning, after which he was pulled from the game.
Weather
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Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Dodgers are 14-1 (93%) over their last 15 games, covering the run line in 11 of those 14 wins (79%). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers
Giants vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
Los Angeles has been the hottest team in baseball and it feels like no one is talking about it. Maybe it's due to the fact that they're always good, and it is expected by now, but 14-1 over their last 15 games with a 79% cover rate is an absurd streak.
I expect this trend to continue as left-hander Clayton Kershaw is slated to take the mound for Los Angeles. Kershaw is another example of pure domination that is being swept under the rug since as it's become the norm for him.
Above, we talked about how Kershaw has not only been dominant all year but has been in particularly great form lately. We should not expect regression from Kershaw as his metrics are outstanding.
This season, Kershaw boasts a .243 xwOBA, .206 xBA, and .306 xSLG. The Dodgers have now won in seven of Kershaw’s 12 starts this year (58%), covering the run line in all seven of those wins.
Through 179 career plate appearances against Kershaw, this current Giants roster possesses a mere .194 BA, .335 SLG, and .247 wOBA. Following Kershaw is one of the better bullpens in the league.
Since June 1, the Dodgers’ relief pitching ranks 12th in the league in ERA, eighth in BA, ninth in SLG, and seventh in wOBA.
Over the last nine meetings between these two clubs, the Dodgers have won six times (67%) and have covered the run line in five of those six wins (83%).
Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Due to this dominant pitching, the Under has been a good bet for the Dodgers recently. There have now been eight or fewer total runs scored in 11 of Los Angeles’ last 16 games (69%).
A similar trend exists for the Giants as they have now seen eight or fewer total runs scored in seven of their last 12 games (58%). Between the eight games these two clubs have played against each other this season, the Under is 5-2-1 (71%).
I expect all of these trends to continue with this afternoon’s pitching matchup. Following up on Kershaw’s dominant pitching, there have been eight or fewer total runs scored in six of his last nine starts (67%).
For the Giants, we can expect to see right-hander Alex Cobb take the mound. As mentioned earlier, Cobb has been performing much better recently and may be able to limit the Dodgers’ offensive firepower.
This resurgence in Cobb’s pitching was predictable due to his great underlying numbers as he boasts a .263 xwOBA, .219 xBA, and .308 xSLG. Over Cobb’s last six starts, there have been eight or fewer total runs scored five times (83%).
Through 41 career plate appearances against Cobb, this current Dodgers roster possesses a .256 BA, .487 SLG, and .330 wOBA.
Prediction: Under 8 (-115 at DraftKings)
Best bet
This Dodgers win streak is an auto-bet until the wheels fall off. They have shown no signs of slowing down, and they have an edge in every category.
Los Angeles boasts a better starting pitcher, better bullpen, and better lineup. Los Angeles relief’ pitching ranks higher than San Francisco in ERA, BA, SLG, and wOBA.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers hit right-handers better than San Francisco hits left-handers. Against right-handed pitchers since June 1, the Dodgers rank fifth in the league in BA, fifth in SLG, sixth in OPS, and sixth in wOBA.
Against left-handed pitchers since June 1, the Giants rank just 22nd in the league in BA, 15th in SLG, 18th in OPS, and 18th in wOBA.
We got one of the best pitchers in the world throwing for one of the best lineups on home field — don't overthink it.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
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