Despite being buyers at the deadline, the Los Angeles Angels enter the second game of a three-game set with the San Francisco Giants riding a seven-game losing skid and still have to play Houston, Texas, and Tampa Bay in their next matchups.
Lucas Giolito will make his third start for the Halos since being acquired as the -105 home dogs will see lefty opener Scott Alexander followed by Alex Wood.
Despite a rough start to his Angels career, could tonight be a perfect bounceback spot for Giolito against one of the worst offenses in baseball right now?
Find out in my MLB betting picks for Giants vs. Angels below.
Giants vs Angels odds
Giants vs Angels predictions
Both Lucas Giolito’s Over 17.5 outs (-140) and Over 5.5 strikeouts (-140) project well in a matchup that favors the pitcher, but considering his recent outing(s), it might be tough for bettors to get on board.
That’s fine by me as that could be one of the reasons both of these props aren’t juiced more in a great matchup vs. arguably the worst offense in baseball.
The San Franciso Giants currently rank dead last in average (.211), wOBA (.279), and home runs hit (21) over the last 30 days. This is a full-strength lineup that has worse numbers than the Rockies.
Giolito did give up nine runs vs. the Braves in his last outing, but this is a different situation vs. the light-hitting Giants. San Franciso is also a decent K% team with a 25% K% over the last 30 days.
Gio has not thrown more than 87 pitches in any of his L.A. starts but considering the current seven-game skid the Halos are riding and the consistent 100-pitch games he had in Chicago, there's no real reason for Phil Nevin to scale him back. Gio has seen two tough opponents in Toronto and Atlanta and should bounce back in a much better matchup tonight.
I’m taking the Over 5.5 Ks instead of the Over 17.5 outs as I like where the market is moving with some books hitting 6.5. Giolito can also burn through his pitch count but still record 6+ punchouts.
The L.A. starter gives up plenty of home runs, but the Giants aren’t that big of a threat to leave the yard. THE BAT is projecting 6.66 strikeouts and 18.5 outs for Giolito.
My best bet: Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 strikeouts (-140)
Giants vs Angels same-game parlay
Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 strikeouts (-150)
Under 9.5 (-135)
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Giolito has a great strikeout matchup vs. the Giants who have the fourth-highest K% in baseball at 25%. Those punchouts should help Gio get out of trouble vs. a light-hitting San Francisco lineup.
The Los Angeles Angels also have one of the highest K% in baseball over the last 30 days, which plays well for the Under 9.5. I went higher than the current total of 9 as you can't get flat numbers in totals at bet365's same-game parlays.
I'm adding Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases as he's the only one on this team hitting well. He has hits in 11 of his last 12 games and recorded 2+ bases in eight of those. The true odds are +568 and I don't weigh the Over total bases heavily vs. that high Under 9.5. The multiplier here is solid.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Giants vs Angels moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Angels are an imperfect 0-7 in August and even Shohei Ohtani’s bat can’t save them as the two-way player is slashing .360/.448/.673 with six runs and three stolen bases.
It’s hard to believe he has just one RBI (on a solo home run) over that stretch but that's the current state of an offense that has scored three or fewer runs in seven of its last 10 games.
It’s also an offense that strikes out a lot with a 28.2% K% over the last 30 days. Now with the Astros, Rangers, and Rays on deck for the Halos, they’re staring down opener Scott Alexander followed by Alex Wood to snap this seven-game skid.
Alexander will likely see no more than two innings, meaning it will be more Wood that L.A. sees tonight. The righty has been all-or-nothing of late as he has blanked the Dodgers, Jays, and Rockies in three of his last five games but also got rocked by the Mets and Padres for 10 runs in the other two.
With Wood comes a high variance of outcomes and with the Giants’ offense likely unable to take advantage of a great home run matchup vs. Lucas Giolito, I’m off the side.
The Giants are striking out at 25% over the last 30 days and have hit just 21 home runs, which ranks dead last in baseball over that stretch. They’re healthy but just a weak offense in general. The Under 9 is a stronger lean for me tonight as the strikeout rates could be on full display tonight.
There is nothing to like about the Giants’ bats of late as their .211 AVG also ranks 30th in the league as well as their .278 wOBA. It’s literally the worst offense in baseball since July and could struggle against a decent K% pitcher in Giolito.
With both pitchers — Giolito and Wood — the variance is high in the possible outcomes, but thanks to a pair of struggling offenses, the Under 9 is my favorite of the Big 3 bets at Angel Stadium that will have 75-degree temps and 8-mph winds blowing straight out.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Get two 25% profit boosts on player to hit a HR bets today at Caesars! Bet Now
B) Framber Valdez, Lucas Giolito, and Max Scherzer each to record 7+ strikeouts BOOSTED to +700 at Barstool! Bet Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Giants have hit the team total Under in 25 of their last 36 games (+12.70 units / 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Angels
Giants vs Angels game info
| Location: | Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports West |
Starting pitchers
Scott Alexander (6-1, 3.21 ERA): Alexander will be making just his fifth start as the reliever has not recorded more than five outs in any of his 39 appearances this year. He owns an 18:7 K:BB rate over 33+ innings with one home run allowed and gets the majority of his outs on the ground with a 63% groundball rate. Alex Wood is expected to follow the lefty and eat the majority of the early innings.
Lucas Giolito (6-8, 4.36 ERA): Giolito has allowed 12 runs over nine innings of work since coming over from the White Sox. He was tagged for nine runs in his last outing vs. the Braves and enters tonight with a 138:46 K:BB rate over 130 innings with 25 home runs allowed. Only two pitchers have allowed more homers than Giolito on the season. His team is 7-16 SU when he starts and THE BAT is projecting 104 pitches, 18.5 outs, 6.66 strikeouts, and 3.00 earned runs.
