The Los Angeles Dodgers look to stay hot as they begin a three-game series with the Cleveland Guardians.
Dave Roberts’ side has won 13 of its last 14 games and will look to stack up a few more wins against a struggling Guardians team with just seven victories in its previous 22 tries.
It’s a Noah Syndergaard revenge game as he takes on his former side that traded him away after a rough start to the season. He’ll face off against effective rookie Bobby Miller in what appears to be a very telling starting pitching matchup.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Guardians on Tuesday, August 22.
Dodgers vs Guardians odds
Dodgers vs Guardians predictions
The Dodgers are hot while the Guardians are decidedly not. This series is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions and I see little reason to expect them to alter course in Game 1 considering the starting pitching matchup.
Can this be considered a Noah Syndergaard revenge game? He’ll need more than just narrative on his side against his former squad as his 6.22 xERA and 6.02 FIP are both disastrous. There’s a reason Los Angeles shipped him out of town after he posted a 7.16 ERA across 55 1/3 IP.
It’s impossible to overstate just how poor his performance has been this season. Thor ranks in the second percentile in both xBA and xSLG and the fourth percentile in xERA/xwOBA. He doesn’t make anyone miss, checking in at the third percentile in whiff rate en route to a career-low 14.3% K-rate.
He allows a lot of contact, and his 9.3% barrel rate is simply too high with that being the case. I suppose that’s what happens to an aging power pitcher whose average fastball velocity has dropped from 99.6 mph at its peak to 92.4 mph this season.
Unsurprisingly, I do not forecast a successful outing for Syndergaard against a Dodgers lineup that has posted a 115 wRC+ and .339 wOBA this year.
Rookie Bobby Miller takes the mound for Los Angeles. He’s in terrific form after surrendering just two earned runs across his last three starts (15 2/3 IP) to lower his ERA from 4.37 to 3.70. Oddly enough, he’s been much more comfortable on the road (2.19 ERA) than at home (5.17 ERA) in his debut season.
His underlying numbers are mostly impressive, as his 3.73 xERA and 3.48 FIP don’t call for any immediate regression while his 6.9% barrel rate is impressively low for a pitcher who ranks in the 98th percentile in average fastball velocity (99.2 mph).
He gets a mouth-watering matchup against a struggling lineup. Cleveland hasn’t been able to generate much offense lately, posting an 84 wRC+ (25th) and .293 wOBA (26th) across its last 10 games.
Miller gives his team a significant starting pitching advantage and the Dodgers’ lineup should be able to repeatedly score runs against Syndergaard, so I see them cruising to their 14th victory in 15 games. I’ll take them on the -1.5 run line at -125 odds.
My best bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-125 at bet365)
Dodgers vs Guardians same-game parlay
Dodgers -1.5 (-125)
Dodgers team total Over 5.5 (+105)
Mookie Betts 2+ total bases (-130)
This SGP will be a three-legger centered around my best bet on the Dodgers’ run line as outlined above.
The next play is taking them to go over their team total of 5.5 in what’s a great matchup against a struggling Syndergaard. Their lineup has not put up otherworldly stats lately and that could be depressing their expectation, but that’s wholly understandable considering they’ve had difficult starting pitching matchups for their last five games. This is one of the best lineups in baseball facing a pitcher who has been throwing batting practice all year, so I’m not going to overthink things. They’ve hit their team total Over in 70 of their last 119 games for an ROI of 10%.
The last correlated leg is Mookie Betts to record 2+ total bases. He’s been a man-possessed lately, notching multiple total bases in seven of his last eight games. Considering this will be as favorable of a matchup as possible, I like his odds of continuing his hot streak tonight.
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Dodgers vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
It should come as no surprise that the Dodgers are a sizable favorite in this contest. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool before placing your wager — the Boys in Blue can be had for as low as -205 or as high as -220, while the best comeback on the home team is +185.
The Dodgers have mostly taken care of business this season, going 65-38 as the favorite. The Guardians are 23-33 as the underdog.
As is to be expected, Los Angeles has been the better team against right-handed pitching, averaging 5.7 runs per game compared to Cleveland’s 4.4 runs per game. The Dodgers have a 113 wRC+ and .337 wOBA against righties on the year while the Guardians have a 95 wRC+ and .308 wOBA.
I give the Dodgers a notable lineup and starting pitching advantage, which is enough for me to buy them as a favorite. I wouldn’t be surprised if the line widens throughout the day.
The total is set at a flat 9.0 across the board.
These teams have been complete opposites this season in that the Dodgers have played to the Over with a 69-48 O/U record while the Guardians have played to the Under with a 48-72 O/U record.
Los Angeles has been especially prone to the Over in Away games, cashing in 37 of its last 57 games for a healthy ROI of 28%. Funny enough, the Guardians attempt to counteract that trend as they’ve cashed the Under in six straight games.
Since handicapping this total is full of conundrums, I’d personally try to narrow it down to a single team if playing the total. The Dodgers’ team total is set at 5.5 with -105 odds to the Over and that seems like a decent play considering Thor’s struggles this season.
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Trend to know
The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 14 games with 10 of those victories coming by 2+ runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs Guardians
Dodgers vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 22, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNLA, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
Starting pitchers
Bobby Miller (7-2, 3.70 ERA): Miller has had a successful rookie season when his team has needed it most due to various starting pitcher injuries. He’s bolstered the rotation with a 3.70 ERA, 3.73 xERA, 3.48 FIP, and 4.04 xFIP. Most recently he allowed just a single earned run on one hit and one walk across six innings in a win over the Milwaukee Brewers.
Noah Syndergaard (2-6, 6.57 ERA): It’d be an understatement to say that Thor has struggled in 2023. He began the year with the Dodgers but was traded after posting an ugly 1-4 record and 7.16 ERA across 55 1/3 IP and his performance hasn’t been much better for his new squad. Overall, he has a 6.22 xERA and 6.02 FIP while his average fastball velocity is down to 92.4 mph — well below its peak of 99.6 mph in 2017.
