Two of the most well-known franchises in baseball will play in this edition of Sunday Night Baseball when the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers meet.
Walker Buehler is in the midst of a rough patch, and my Dodgers vs. Braves predictions expect Atlanta to get to him early and often. Find out why in my MLB picks below for September 15.
Dodgers vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Braves first five moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Once you get by the name and the aspect of backing a team trying to avoid a sweep, you quickly run out of reasons to back the Los Angeles Dodgers here.
Walker Buehler has been dreadful since the injury return — particularly over his last three starts — where he's posted an ERA over six. If you're backing him to bounce back or have some positive regression, it's almost certainly because of past pedigree.
But since we haven't seen that Buehler since his injury return, I'm inclined to believe something may be seriously wrong. I'll have to fade him until then. In this instance, I see more of an edge early in the game than from a whole nine-inning perspective.
Simply put, the Atlanta Braves have the better pitcher with the better matchup.
Even at his age, Braves righty Charlie Morton can still dominate games if he can get consistent ground balls. He'll enter this game ranking in the Top 75% in ground ball rate, a tradition like no other throughout his career.
Doing that against this Dodgers lineup is probably the most challenging task of any team. However, their league-best rate has also been somewhat unsustainable, as we've seen lately. L.A. has ranked just below league average in ground ball rate over its last 10, and I don't expect that to change here. That will be enough, given Buehler's struggles.
What's most notable about the Dodgers' hurler is his whiff and chase rate, which ranks at the bottom of the barrel. That's so significant when facing Atlanta because it's a team that has always chased a ton of pitches over the last five years.
Without that happening much today, I expect the Braves to punish Buehler's primary issues of being completely average across the board in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Bag stealer
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 stolen bases (+290 at bet365)
My analysis
With 14 games remaining, Ohtani needs three home runs and two stolen bases to make history.
Over the past two seasons, Morton has owned a 77% successful stolen base market, which is one of the higher numbers in baseball. His disposition to give away the free base via walks, too, only aids us here, as Ohtani owns a walk percentage ranking in the Top 12%.
Dodgers vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Braves first five -0.5
Charlie Morton Over 2.5 walks
As always, we have to improvise with our best bet and take the spread in place of the money line, as no book allows you to use any F5 ML in a same-game parlay.
The Dodgers are the most patient team in baseball, and Ohtani's walk rate extends throughout the team. L.A. enters today with the third-highest walk rate in baseball, and Morton is no stranger to giving free passes. This number should be priced closer to a coin flip, and since it's not, we're taking advantage of it.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Braves odds
Dodgers vs Braves live odds
Dodgers vs Braves opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles --116 | Atlanta -102
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+160) | Atlanta +1.5 (-192)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Dodgers vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta will be eying a sweep tonight, and its third straight win over the Dodgers. The Braves also have an advantage in this series overall, having won six of the last 10 games.
- The Dodgers have struggled recently, dropping lost six of its last 10 games.
- The Braves have been fine over the last 10 games winning six of them.
- It's not often you see it, but bettors are fading LA — at least early. We've seen the Dodgers go from slight favorites to slight underdogs, and the total jump from 8.5 to 8.
Dodgers vs Braves trend
Atlanta games have been going under lately. Seven of its last 10 games have gone that direction, yielding bettors a profit of over five units. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Braves.
Dodgers vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (1-5, 5.95 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Charlie Morton (8-8, 4.11 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Braves latest injuries
Dodgers vs Braves weather
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