After last night's win in extras, the St. Louis Cardinals look to even the series against the Chicago Cubs. Can the birds get the job done this afternoon?
St. Louis is -116 on the moneyline, and my Cubs vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, July 30, see the Cardinals taking down the Cubs this afternoon.
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Who will win Cubs vs Cardinals today: Cardinals (-116)
Javier Assad gets the ball for the Chicago Cubs, and his underlying metrics over his last five starts stand out for all the wrong reasons.
The right-hander owns a 4.14 xERA with a 45.10% hard-hit rate. He has also struggled away from Wrigley Field this season, posting a 5.11 ERA while surrendering nearly a 50% hard-hit rate and a 10% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
The St. Louis Cardinals offense has been cold over the last few weeks, but it has continued to generate hard contact, maintaining at least a 42% hard-hit rate over its last 21 games.
On the other side, Andre Pallante has quietly been much sharper.
Over his last five starts, the Cardinals right-hander owns a 2.91 xERA while allowing just a 30.9% hard-hit rate and a 4.12% barrel rate. With Pallante holding the edge on the mound and St. Louis offering plus money, I like the Birds to take this one.
COVERS INTEL: Another key to Pallante's success has been limiting the long ball thanks to a 55.5% ground-ball rate that ranks in the 95th percentile.Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+105)
I am already expecting the Cardinals offense to break out after generating nearly a 45% hard-hit rate over its last six games. The results have not been there, but the quality of contact certainly has.
Now they draw Assad, who has allowed a 45.10% hard-hit rate and nearly an 8% barrel rate over his last five starts. That feels like the perfect recipe for St. Louis to finally cash in on all that hard contact.
The Cubs offense has been on an absolute tear, so I expect them to do their part and help push this game Over the total.
- 2026 MLB Season: 349-682, -15.7 units
Cubs vs Cardinals weather
Another toasty day in St. Louis, with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and a slight breeze blowing in.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: Cubs +105 | Cardinals -116
- Run line: Cubs +1.5 (-190) | Cardinals -1.5 (+186)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-116)
Cubs vs Cardinals trend
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 50 games (+2.75 Units / 5% ROI).
Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Cubs vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Thursday, July 30, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee, Cardinals.TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Javier Assad (6-1, 3.86 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Andre Pallante (11-6, 3.77 ERA) |
Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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