How about a trio of pitcher Over props on the short slate to scratch that MLB player prop itch?
I'm doubling up on a pair of short strikeout props in San Diego, as the pitch counts in the projections might be a little conservative, and taking the same approach in Atlanta with a starter coming off the IL, but still likely to push 15 outs.
These are my favorite MLB pitcher props for Thursday, July 30.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Robbie Ray |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +103 |
 JP Sears |
Over 3.5 strikeouts | +105 |
 Jake Irvin |
Over 1.5 walks allowed | +130 |
Strikeout prop: Robbie Ray Over 4.5 strikeouts (+103)
Are we taking Robbie Ray seriously enough?
Over his last seven starts, Ray has allowed just five earned runs while striking out 35 over 43 innings. He has cleared this number four times during that stretch and missed by the hook twice. His strikeout stuff has also been better on the road for three straight seasons, and his slider — his second-most used pitch at 26% — is generating more whiffs this year than last.
Ray has a 100-pitch leash and has 5+ strikeouts in back-to-back starts despite throwing just 80 and 86 pitches. He can get there through either volume or efficiency.
The Padres are a middle-of-the-pack strikeout offense, ranking 15th in MLB in K%. Expecting 15-18 outs with five punchouts at plus money isn't an aggressive projection. THE BAT has him projected for 94 pitches and 4.77 strikeouts.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Padres.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area
Strikeout prop: JP Sears Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105)
Let's stay in San Diego and attack the Over on a modest strikeout total for Padres southpaw JP Sears.
The lefty is making a start after spending some time in a bulk relief role. He threw 55 pitches five days ago and has already been stretched out to 95 pitches earlier this season. He likely won't get that far today, but 75-80 pitches is certainly in play.
THE BAT projects him around four strikeouts on 72 pitches, but that might be a little conservative. The Giants strike out 2.3% more often against left-handed pitching, and Sears has at least three strikeouts in all six of his appearances this season, giving him a solid floor.
The Padres also used five bullpen arms yesterday and could be without three right-handed relievers, which adds more value to Sears getting through the lineup multiple times.
There is plenty of meat on this bone with a fair price around -125.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Padres.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area
Pitcher walks allowed prop: Jake Irvin Over 1.5 walks allowed (+130)
Washington has activated Jake Irvin off the 60-day IL, and he will make his return today on the road against the Braves.
Irvin threw 63 pitches in his final tune-up start, so a 75-pitch leash feels realistic. He already issued 22 walks over 51+ innings before the injury and can get to this Over without needing a deep outing. Even before landing on the IL, he failed to reach 15 outs in each of his previous five starts while walking 11 batters over 22 innings.
Coming back from injury always brings the possibility of command issues, and adding a road start makes the matchup even more appealing. Irvin has consistently posted worse walk numbers away from home, making this a tough spot to ignore at plus money.
These markets don't pop up often because walk props are volatile and difficult to price, especially with uncertain pitch counts. But the Over is showing value even with a conservative leash, and I make the break-even price around +105/+110.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
- Prop picks: 7-10, -3.23 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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