The Milwaukee Brewers have won each of their last five games, and they’ll also be looking for a three-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs on Sunday.
The Brewers should be in good hands, sending one of baseball's best pitchers in Corbin Burnes to the mound this afternoon.
Will Milwaukee remain one of the hottest teams in the league heading into a new week? Keep reading our Cubs vs. Brewers MLB picks and predictions to find out.
Cubs vs Brewers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
If you want to take the Brewers to win this game outright, you’ll have to be willing to lay some real juice here. After opening at -191, Milwaukee is as high as a -215 favorite. You can, however, find the Brewers at -196, or you can take them to cover 1.5 runs at +112.
The total in this one is really low because of the battle on the mound, as it opened at 7 and some sportsbooks are making you pay a price to take the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cubs vs Brewers predictions
- Prediction: Brewers -1.5 (+112)
- Prediction: Under 7 (-106)
- Best bet: Brewers to score first + win (+116)
Picks made on 5/1/2022 at 3:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cubs vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Sunday, May 1, 2022
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MARQ, Bally Sports
Cubs vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Marcus Stroman (0-3, 6.98 ERA): Stroman had allowed 12 earned runs over his previous two starts before allowing only two in six innings in a loss to the Atlanta Braves. That last start should give the righty a lot of confidence heading into this meeting with the Brewers. The 30-year-old has been a very good starter throughout his career, so he should start to settle in soon. He also performed well against this Brewers team in the first game of the year.
Corbin Burnes (1-0, 1.75 ERA): Burnes racked up 11 strikeouts in 6 2-3 shutout innings against the San Francisco Giants on Monday, but that stellar performance was wasted in a 4-2 loss. Still, the righty has picked up right where he left off last season, as he has given up only five earned runs through four starts this year. Burnes did, however, give up three earned in only five innings against this Cubs team on Opening Day.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cubs: Clint Frazier OF (Out), Alec Mills P (Out), Wade Miley P (Out), Andrelton Simmons SS (Out), Adbert Alzolay P (Out).
Brewers: Victor Caratini C (Out), Pedro Severino C (Out), Luis Urias 2B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cubs are 8-21 in their last 29 meetings with the Brewers. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers
Cubs vs Brewers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
You can do a lot worse than backing Burnes as a -196 favorite on the moneyline, but the better bang for your buck is taking the Brewers to cover the 1.5-run spread at plus money.
The Cubs, who have scored exactly one run in four of their last five games, are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball this year. The team stats just don’t reflect that yet because they scored 21 runs in a single game against the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 23.
Burnes gave up three earned runs in five innings against this Chicago team on Opening Day, but that was after an abbreviated Spring Training. The righty is now looking like himself for the Brewers, and he is making an early case for the NL Cy Young Award. Look for Burnes to be a bit more like the guy he was against the Cubs last year, when he was 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA against them over three starts.
If Burnes shows up the way he’s expected to, the Brewers should have no trouble covering the run line in this game. Milwaukee’s offense should be feeling really good after scoring nine runs on 12 hits against Chicago on Saturday. Even Christian Yelich, who had been struggling mightily to start the season, was 3-for-5 in that game.
Now, the Brewers should be able to turn in a good performance against Stroman, who just hasn’t looked comfortable to start the year. And even if Milwaukee doesn’t quite get to Stroman, the team should be able to find some success against a Chicago bullpen that is just 16th in MLB in combined ERA.
Prediction: Brewers -1.5 (+112 at Unibet)
Over/Under analysis
The Under has now hit in each of Burnes’ last three starts, so the Opening Day Over between these two teams is his only one of the season.
Look for the righty to be a lot sharper this time around. In fact, don’t be surprised if the ace goes seven or so innings and allows only one or so runs in this start. Chicago has been a disaster at the plate over the last week, and this isn’t a matchup that should inspire much hope.
Meanwhile, even if Stroman struggles to find his best stuff in this start, it’s going to be hard for Milwaukee to score enough runs to put the Under at risk all on its own.
It should also be noted that the Under is 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven road games with totals between 7 and 8.5. It’s also 7-1-2 in Milwaukee’s last 10 games against teams with losing records and 7-2-2 in the Brewers' last 11 overall. It’s just hard to see the score getting run up with these pitchers on the mound.
Prediction: Under 7 (-106 at FanDuel)
Best bet
In addition to backing the Brewers to win this game outright, another good play is taking them to be the first team on the scoreboard in a victory.
While the Cubs will get the first crack at scoring in this game, they will have to do so against Burnes. The righty has been in a groove since he struggled against Chicago in his first start of the year, and he’ll be eager to go out there and shut the Cubs down in his second outing against them.
The Cubs have also scored only one run in four of their last five games, so this isn’t exactly an offense that is thriving right now. Chicago’s team total in this one is only 2.5, which is absurdly low. You’ll just need the Brewers to do some early work on Stroman in this game, and they’re more than capable of doing so.
Pick: Brewers to score first and win (+116 at Unibet)
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