The Los Angeles Angels and starter Reid Detmers will look to sweep the visiting Chicago Cubs and Drew Smyly tonight at Angel Stadium. The Halos sit as -130 home favorites, with a total of 9 on the MLB odds board.
Both pitchers have some red flags, but Detmers’ struggles late in the game are well-documented, and they are ones that bettors can take advantage of in this spot.
Find out where my best bet lies in our MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Angels on Thursday, June 8.
Cubs vs Angels odds
Cubs vs Angels predictions
Reid Detmers has been a great pitcher over his first 18 batters of an outing, but the third time through the order has been a rough ride for the lefty. Batters are hitting .526 vs. him with a 1.328 OPS in this situation, compared to a .196 AVG and a .551 OPS the first time through.
Batters are adjusting to Detmers, which could lead to a shorter leash vs. the Cubs this evening. If I’m aware of it, then L.A. management definitely is.
Detmers has an out total of 17.5, and THE BAT is projecting 15.72 outs from the Angels starter, who has a 1.800 OPS against in the sixth inning. This is also a live market bettors could look at as if he is dealing early, as that total out market might move as high as 18.5 or 19.5.
The hitting conditions won’t be helping either starter, as Angel Stadium will be hitter-friendly today with 80-degree temps and double-digit winds blowing out to center.
It could be sweaty, but the book is out on Detmers, and there are plenty of avenues where he hits his Under 17.5 outs — something he’s done in nine of his 10 starts. He could pitch well and just not see the order a third time, he could get into trouble in the sixth (which is something he has consistently done this season), or he might not even see the sixth with the hitting conditions.
My best bet: Detmers Under 17.5 outs (-120 at DraftKings)
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Cubs vs Angels moneyline analysis
The Angels opened as -135 favorites but have moved to -130 as bettors are slightly higher on the Cubs tonight. The visitors dropped both games in the series as a +125 dog yesterday, and a short -105 dog in the opener.
Quick-looking bettors will see the ERA difference between the two starters and lean toward Drew Smyly, but I feel that Detmers’ numbers are exaggerated while Smyly might be heading to some negative regression.
Detmers has been a great pitcher early with a .511 OPS the first time through the order, and then a .705 OPS the second time he sees the lineup. Things haven’t been pretty the third time through the order with a 1.320 OPS against. If he can limit the damage late or even see fewer innings (L.A. has a great bullpen), the pitching edge could swing in favor of the home side which would put value on the Halos moneyline at -130.
Detmers currently owns a 3.62 FIP, which is better than Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcantara, and Merrill Kelly. He is not as bad as his numbers are showing, and just struggles facing batters a third time.
On the other side, Drew Smyly is not a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher like he was after 10 starts this year. He's a flyball pitcher, which won't help him a little today as Angel Stadium has decent hitting conditions in store. Smyly is more the pitcher bettors have seen of late, allowing 14 hits and eight runs with a 6:5 K/BB ratio over his last two starts.
As the weather gets hotter and hitting conditions improve, batters are going to tag the lefty a little harder, as he sits high-80s low-90s with his cutter and sinker, which he throws a combined 50% of the time.
The Angels’ offense will also get a boost as leadoff hitter Taylor Ward will be back in the lineup after getting a day off yesterday and Hunter Renfroe — who hits in the middle of the order and is arguably the third-best hitter in this lineup — could return from paternity leave.
I’m happy to take the Halos at -125 Thursday night, as I also believe the hitting conditions favor the better offense.
Cubs vs Angels Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 9, hit 9.5 early this morning, but then dropped back to 9 as of this writing.
The 80-degree temps and double-digit winds blowing out are favoring the Over, but with bettors buying back the Under at 9.5, this one might close at 9.
Both starting pitchers have some red flags that don’t pair well with the hitting conditions. Smyly is not an elite whiff% pitcher, gets a lot of flyball outs, and should get hit harder as the weather warms up.
Detmers is also a pitcher that batters make great in-game adjustments against as there is a .328-point difference in batting average for hitters who see him a first time (.198 BA) vs. a third time (.526 BA). The runs might not come early vs Detmers and F5 bettors should be aware of this, but if he stays in and sees 100 pitches, the runs could come the third time through.
Every arm is available in both bullpens, which favors the Under and makes this a pretty tough total to predict. There is action on the Under at 9.5 and Over at 9 which indicates this total is projecting right around 9.25. That makes it a no-play for me.
Cubs vs Angels game info
|Location:||Angel Stadium, Los Angeles, CA|
|Date:||Thursday, June 8, 2023|
|First pitch:||9:38 p.m. ET|
|TV:||Marquee Sports Network, Bally Sports West|
Drew Smyly (5-3, 3.56 ERA): Smyly went through a dominant stretch of nine straight starts where the lefty allowed two or fewer runs and posted a 2.13 ERA and a sub-0.90 WHIP. He was more than likely pitching above his numbers as he is projected as a 4.74 ERA pitcher, per THE BAT. He’s allowed eight runs over his last 10-plus innings, has a 57:17 K/BB ratio over 65.2 innings, and the Cubs are 7-5 SU in his starts. THE BAT is projecting 83 pitches, 14.3 outs, 4.97 strikeouts, and 2.76 earned runs.
Reid Detmers (0-5, 5.15 ERA): The Angels have lost five of Detmers' last six starts and he’s been getting hit hard the third time through the order, where batters are posting a 1.328 OPS vs. him. Detmers has a 1.800 OPS against in the sixth inning, and a 1.361 OPS against in pitches 75-100. The lefty does have a solid 26.4 K% and has allowed just five home runs over 50.2 innings. THE BAT is projecting 92 pitches, 15.7 outs, 6.36 strikeouts, and 2.62 earned runs.
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