Cuba vs USA World Baseball Classic Predictions, Picks, Odds - America's Title Defense Lives On

With a dramatic come-from-behind win on Saturday night, Team USA is into the semifinals of the World Baseball Classic. While things didn’t exactly start off on the right foot for this group and looked bleak in the late innings against Venezuela, Trea Turner injected some much-needed life into this team with a game-winning grand slam.

Now, the road gets a bit easier with a short-staffed, mildly-talented Cuban team. Team USA should get to Cuba’s pitching early and run away with Sunday’s semifinal, but let me explain exactly what the Americans are up against in my Cuba vs. USA WBC picks and predictions.

Cuba vs USA odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Odds courtesy of bet365 as of March 19, 2023.

Cuba vs USA picks and predictions

It wasn’t the prettiest of beginnings for the Cubans with an 0-2 start, but after qualifying for the elimination stage of this tournament and drawing a great matchup against Australia, they find themselves just a game away from a spot in the final.

While you think of Cuba as a country rich with baseball talent and winners of three straight, we need to get the facts straight here.

First off, its .825 OPS ranks seventh in the Classic to this point because this lineup is lacking some serious firepower. Due to the government’s way of doing business, Cuba has only just now been allowing players who play in Major League Baseball to participate in the WBC, and even with that the participation is still limited.

That’s why it hurts that Yoenis Cespedes is 0-for-6, looking like a shell of himself, and it’s been hard to watch Luis Robert struggle to just a .227 average with one extra-base hit and seven strikeouts. This team is relying squarely on the talents of Yoan Moncada, which seems impossible given the poor season he had in 2023.

Another thing working against Cuba in this spot is the fact that, while the team did have three days of rest after beating Australia, it had to travel from Japan to Miami to play in the semis on Sunday.

As someone who covers tennis extensively and deals with handicapping travel all the time, a good rule of thumb is that it takes someone a day to recover for each time zone they pass through — which means with a 13-hour difference, this team will be nowhere near fully recovered.

Making matters even worse, Roenis Elias will be this team’s starter. While the MLB journeyman has pitched to a 2.57 ERA in seven innings, he’s only struck out three hitters and hasn’t had to face the kind of firepower he’ll be up against with Team USA.

This team has only struck out 35 times in 187 plate appearances (18.7 K rate) which is incredible, and if it is going to be putting the ball in play all night long, I fear the worst for Elias and Cuba.

Pitching has been the Achilles heel for the U.S., but it will have a motivated Adam Wainwright on the hill. The veteran was solid against Great Britain with just a run against him on five hits over four innings last week, but he was skipped over in the rotation, with Mark DeRosa perhaps expecting more against a weak opponent.

Aside from Daniel Bard — who nearly blew Saturday night’s game — I think you can make the case that Team USA’s bullpen is a pretty strong unit. That group held things together against a tough Venezuela team after Bard departed, and I think behind a competent Wainwright it should take care of a weak Cuban offense.

I’m comfortable laying the runs here given the lopsided nature of this matchup. While it’s been hard to stomach at times during the WBC, this is about as good of a matchup as Team USA could have hoped for in the semis. The Americans are hitting the ball very well at the moment and should chase Elias from the game early, opening the door to bully the bullpen.

My best bet: Team USA -2.5 (-125 at DraftKings)

Cuba vs USA moneyline analysis

Team USA is currently sitting at -410 to win this game, given an 80.4% implied probability to move on to the finals. Given what we’ve covered, it makes total sense that this team would be a huge favorite.

Cuba’s offense lacks bite and the American offense has begun to really hit the ball with authority. On top of that, it should have the much stronger starting pitcher here.

I’ve seen this line as high as -500 at certain shops, so be sure to look around for the best price if you’re going to lay it down with Team USA. I see no reason why this team shouldn’t be given an 80% chance or better, though.

Cuba vs USA Over/Under analysis

This one is a little tricky. I have been trying to capitalize on Team USA’s suspect pitching and stacked lineup by taking the Over in many of its games, but the fact of the matter is it hasn't been cashing those.

I think Cuba’s going to take a step back offensively against a pretty strong starter in Wainwright and a good bullpen behind him. On the other hand, while I don’t trust Elias, I do want to point out the Cubans own a 3.20 ERA at the World Baseball Classic.

A total of 10 runs seems just a hair too high for me, but ultimately I’d like to stay away from either side here. There’s a real world where both Elias and Wainwright come out of the gates shaky in a big game, and there’s also a world where Team USA puts up seven runs and shuts the door on these Cuban bats.

I just think there are too many possible outcomes, so I’ll stay away with a nod to the Under.

Cuba vs USA game info

Cuba vs USA starting pitchers

Roenis Elias: The right-hander is now 34 years of age and has pitched all over the bigs for the Mariners, Red Sox, and Nationals. He returned to Seattle last season to post a 3.52 ERA in 7 2/3 innings out of the bullpen after posting a 5.12 ERA in Triple-A. He’s now in the Cubs organization and allowed four runs in just 4 2/3 innings at Spring Training before joining Team Cuba.

Adam Wainwright: The veteran was solid against Great Britain with just a run against him on five hits over four innings last week. He’ll surely be asked to give the maximum 65 pitches here, barring a poor start. The 41-year-old loves to use movement to get his outs, primarily with a cutter and his trademark curveball. 

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