The Milwaukee Brewers are fighting to stay in the NL Wild Card race as they visit the St. Louis Cardinals for a two-game series beginning on Tuesday night.
The Cardinals hold an eight-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central race, making this mini-series something of a last stand in the divisional battle for Milwaukee.
Both the Cardinals and the Brewers will start pitchers they acquired at the trade deadline on Tuesday. One of these additions has been particularly impressive since joining a new squad and should lead his team to victory.
We’ll break down the matchup in our MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Cardinals on September 13.
Brewers vs Cardinals best odds
Brewers vs Cardinals picks and predictions
Both Milwaukee and St. Louis made moves at the trade deadline when the two teams were in the middle of a tight race atop the NL Central. Since that time, the Cardinals have pulled away from Milwaukee in the division, opening up an eight-game lead by going 29-10 since August 1.
In tonight’s matchup, both squads will show off one of their new acquisitions. The Cardinals will send Jordan Montgomery to the mound, who they picked up from the New York Yankees in exchange for Harrison Bader. Since that time, Montgomery has been electric for the Cardinals, pitching to a 1.45 ERA in seven starts.
The Brewers picked up Tuesday starter Matt Bush from the Texas Rangers at the deadline. Bush will serve as an opener, as he has exclusively come out of the bullpen since joining Milwaukee. Chances are that he’ll pitch just a single inning before turning the ball over to the Brewers bullpen.
While Milwaukee has a capable bullpen, especially when they turn the ball over late to the likes of Devin Williams, Matt Bush, and Brad Boxberger, there’s no doubt that St. Louis enjoys the pitching advantage on Tuesday.
Not only has Montgomery performed brilliantly since coming to the Cardinals, but the Brewers also struggle against left-handed pitching. Milwaukee is hitting just .215 with a paltry .658 OPS against southpaws this season.
The Brewers lineup is also struggling in general of late. Over the past two weeks, Milwaukee is hitting just .214 while averaging under four runs per game. The most productive members of the Brewers lineup all bat from the left side of the plate, including Rowdy Tellez, Jace Peterson, and Christian Yelich.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals rake no matter who they are facing. St. Louis is fourth in scoring offense this season, averaging 4.90 runs per game. A deep and balanced lineup led by Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado should generate offense against whoever Milwaukee pulls out of the bullpen throughout the night.
I’d be happy to take St. Louis on the moneyline at -180, but I think we can do even better than that. At home with Montgomery on the mound, let’s lay the run line with the Cardinals and extract as much value as we can out of this matchup.
My best bet: Cardinals -1.5 (+120 at PointsBet)
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Brewers vs Cardinals betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Cardinals have been one of the hottest teams in the majors since the trade deadline, putting up a blistering 22-7 record in August. That great form continues in September, as St. Louis has won seven of 10 to cement its hold on the NL Central race.
The Brewers haven’t been horrible over that same period, but they haven’t done enough to keep up with the Cardinals or their NL Wild Card competition. Milwaukee has gone just 18-21 since the trade deadline, though there are signs of improvement this month. The Brewers have won four of five heading into their showdown with the Cardinals on Tuesday.
Jordan Montgomery has been lights out for the Cardinals since moving to St. Louis at the trade deadline. While he was solid for the Yankees, he has been brilliant for the Cardinals, who have won all seven of his starts for the team.
The Brewers have struggled against left-handed pitching this year. This is particularly apparent when it comes to their power numbers. Milwaukee hitters have just a .354 slugging percentage against lefties, compared to a far more impressive .433 figure against righties.
These two teams have been competitive all season long, with the Cardinals holding an 8-7 edge in the season series so far. St. Louis has won four of the seven matchups at home this year.
Over/Under analysis
The total has moved downward overnight in this game, with most books now posting the Over/Under at 7.5 after opening at 8. The movement makes sense given the relatively strong pitching matchup in a park that doesn’t cater to offense.
As I’ve harped on throughout my analysis, the Brewers struggle mightily to hit left-handed pitching. Combine that with the fact that Montgomery has been on fire since joining the Cardinals, and you have the recipe for a tough night for the Milwaukee offense.
Milwaukee’s bullpen should be able to pitch effectively throughout the game as well. The Brewers bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack with a 3.96 ERA, but manager Craig Counsell should lean on his best arms now that every game is critical to Milwaukee’s playoff chances.
Busch Stadium also tends to tamp down on scoring a bit. The Cardinals’ home park rates 25th in Park Factor when it comes to allowing runs at .907, despite the fact that St. Louis has been among the best offensive teams in the league this year.
While all these factors seem to point to the Under, the total of 7.5 is a bit scary given just how many runs the Cardinals are scoring this year. I’m wary of playing the total in this game, though I’d probably side with the Under if I had to, since Milwaukee may struggle to score against Montgomery.
Brewers vs Cardinals game info
• Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Tuesday, September 13, 2022
• First pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Midwest
Starting pitchers
Matt Bush (2-2, 3.23 ERA): Matt Bush will be serving the role of opener for the Cardinals on Tuesday. He should be comfortable in that role, having done the same five times earlier in the season while playing with the Rangers. In each of those appearances, Bush went just a single inning and was mostly effective. In total, he gave up just one run on three hits over five innings in his starts before handing over the ball. Expect him to do the same on Tuesday, pitching just a single inning in what will amount to a bullpen game for Milwaukee.
Jordan Montgomery (8-3, 3.08 ERA): The 29-year-old Montgomery was solid for the Yankees this year, going 3-3 with a 3.69 ERA in 21 starts for New York. However, he has found a groove since coming to St. Louis. In his seven starts for the Cardinals, the lefty is 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA and a 0.900 WHIP.
While his strikeout and walk numbers are similar for both teams, he has done a much better job of keeping the ball in the park for the Cardinals. Montgomery has allowed just one home run over 43 1-3 innings in his time with St. Louis after giving up 15 dingers in 114 2-3 innings for the Yankees.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Brewers are 2-7 in their last nine road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cardinals
