The Atlanta Braves needed some wins to get back on track, and they got exactly what they needed with two commanding wins over the Milwaukee Brewers at home on Friday and Saturday. With a top prospect heading to the hill for Atlanta, can this team pull off the sweep and send the Brewers plummeting down the NL Central standings?
Let’s break down Brewers vs. Braves in our MLB picks and predictions for Sunday, July 30.
Brewers vs Braves odds
Brewers vs Braves predictions
I’m generally a believer in Braves prospect AJ Smith-Shawver, but he’s going to need to make some adjustments rather quickly in order for me to trust him so soon at the big-league level. Down in Triple-A this year, he posted a 4.44 ERA in 24 1/3 innings with a poor 35% ground ball rate and a good, not great, 25.5% strikeout rate.
Naturally, the strikeouts have dissipated a bit at the MLB level and the ground ball rate has hurt him. He’s now allowed five home runs in his last two starts. As a big-time fly ball pitcher, he doesn’t profile as a player who would really enjoy pitching in Truist Park. The Braves’ home stadium ranks sixth in park factor for home runs.
So, where does that leave us? Well, the Brewers love hitting ground balls. They’ve done it at the fourth-highest rate in the league and they have the lowest fly ball rate in baseball over the last two weeks. That should give Smith-Shawver a much-needed helping hand in limiting the long ball.
While I don’t love Colin Rea, he’s really settled in nicely this month with three starts where he allowed just two runs and one tough one against Cincinnati. He’s a prime positive regression candidate with a 4.15 xERA and with that, I think both pitchers can have success here.
My best bet: Under 11.5 (-120 at BetRivers)
Brewers vs Braves same-game parlay
Under 11 (-105)
Colin Rea Under 3.5 strikeouts (+104)
AJ Smith-Shawver Under 4.5 strikeouts (-154)
It’s not often you back both pitchers by grabbing the Under and proceed to fade their props, but I think this matchup warrants it.
Rea is the more likely of the two to run into trouble and get knocked out of the game considering the Braves’ other-worldly offense, so the short number here doesn’t scare me. On top of that, the Braves have struck out in just 22.3% of plate appearances and Rea ranks in the Bottom 20% of the league in whiff rate.
The Brewers are a very contact-heavy team, striking out in just 21.4% of plate appearances, so I don’t think Smith-Shawver is going to rack up the punch outs here. He’s only striking out around 20% of batters anyway, and I expect a ton of soft ground balls back in play.
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Brewers vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The moneyline isn’t too appealing either way here. Smith-Shawver has been far too erratic during his short big-league career to completely trust him, so paying upwards of -180 to back him doesn’t really entice me.
On the other side, without the Brewers’ ability to hit fly balls, I’m scared to take a bite out of them straight up, even at a juicy price of +150. This is a very bad offense (a 26th-ranked 88 wRC+ as a team), and even if their pitching staff has been amazing they’re going to have to find a way to put up a few runs to win this one.
I’d definitely take the Braves here if I were asked to take a side. Rea is not a consistently effective pitcher. He is a strike-thrower getting ready take on one of the best offenses assembled in the last decade. I’d stay away from either side as a result.
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Trend to know
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 99 games (+10.95 Units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves
Brewers vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, July 30, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSWI, BSSE |
Starting pitchers
Colin Rea (5-4, 4.53 ERA): Rea has now given up five home runs in the month of July, posting a 4.43 ERA in the process. He sports a solid walk rate with a low strikeout rate, hoping to pith to contact on the ground.
AJ Smith-Shawver (1-0, 4.32 ERA): The Braves’ top pitching prospect does own a nice 3.20 xERA but after a strong start to his career, he’s now coughed up eight runs in his last two starts. That’s come along with five home runs.
