Braves vs Rockies Picks and Predictions: Runs Aplenty in Series Opener

The Atlanta Braves descend on Denver ready to break out the lumber against the Colorado Rockies. Austin Riley & Co. match up well against southpaw Austin Gomber and should be able to get to him early. We're fading the lefty hard in our betting picks.

Chris Hatfield - Betting Analyst at
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Jun 2, 2022 • 12:46 ET • 4 min read
Austin Riley Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The post-World Series malaise has probably lingered longer than most Atlanta Braves fans have liked. Atlanta is 5-5 over its last 10 games, and is coming off losing two of three to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Colorado's start is one game worse than Atlanta's at 23-27. The Rockies are coming off a high-scoring series against the Marlins that featured them winning Wednesday's finale 13-12.

Find out who has the edge tonight with our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Rockies on Thursday, June 2.

Braves vs Rockies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Braves opened as a -140 favorite on Wednesday night. Since then, they have taken a little money and have gone to -145 in some spots. The Rockies return anywhere from +120 to +125.

The total opened up at 11, saw sharp money, and quickly went to 11.5 across the board.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Braves vs Rockies predictions

Picks made on 6/2/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Braves vs Rockies game info

Location: Coors Field, Denver, CO
Date: Thursday, June 2, 2022
First pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Southeast, AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountains

Braves vs Rockies betting preview

Starting pitchers

Ian Anderson (3-3, 4.34 ERA): I've written about the curios case of Ian Anderson a few times this season, and not much has changed. He's a problematic pitcher to handicap because he's sometimes dominant, sometimes a disaster. It feels like May was more in-line with what you're going to get from him. In each of his last two starts, both coming against the Marlins, Anderson allowed four earned runs in just over five innings of work. That's nothing you're going to boast about, but it's also something that won't knock you out of a game. He's lost a little velocity on his fastball this season, and in turn, teams are hitting fewer ground balls against him, which is probably the most significant factor in his elevated ERA.

Austin Gomber (2-5, 5.51 ERA): Gomber is tied for the third-most home runs allowed on home soil among active pitchers. This season, the barrel rate has been his biggest problem, and it's in the bottom 30% of pitchers overall. His expected batting average is a whopping .311, which would be the worst of his career. Teams are crushing his fastball with a batting average of .342 against it. Gomber gave up eight runs while barely getting out of the first inning in his most recent start, and May was an awful month for him on the whole, with a 6.48 ERA.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Tyler Matzek RP (Out), Eddie Rosario LF (Out), Kirby Yates RP (Out), Mike Soroka SP (Out).
Rockies: Kris Bryant LF (Out), Kyle Freeland SP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Braves are 6-0 in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Rockies

Braves vs Rockies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Braves rake against left-handers. So naturally, you have to like this matchup for them, and that's the chief reason I'll be on them today.

The above trend about the Braves winning six straight against left-handed pitchers is just one part of this. Atlanta's platoon splits show the Braves do just about everything better against left-handed pitching. When they see a southpaw on the mound, the team's slugging percentage goes to the league's best at .432.

And although May was an uneven month in the win/loss department, it does appear that the Atlanta bats are beginning to get in order. They've scored six or more runs in three of their last four. That's a good feeling to have to go into a hitters ballpark.

Unique to this matchup is Gomber's barrel rate issue. It's in the bottom quarter of the league, and he has yet to face a team ranked in the Top 10 in barrel rate this season. The Braves rank second in barrel rate in MLB, trailing only the New York Yankees this season. But even more than that, they have excellent power hitters who cause problems for any pitcher who has issues getting soft contact.

This is one of my top projections plays of the day. I have Atlanta winning this game nearly 65% of the time, suggesting a price nearing -200. I see a great value on the current price of -140 at FanDuel. I happily take that.

Prediction: Braves moneyline (-140 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

The mission today is to fade Gomber. He's giving up too much hard contact and he may not have bottomed out just yet. Making frequent starts at Coors Field is never a friend of a pitcher, and it's been especially rough for the left-hander, so we're going to look to target the Braves' team total today.

Putting previously mentioned barrel struggles aside, Gomber gives up a lot of hits in general. He does this based upon the numbers of throwing over 55% of his pitches for strikes. Unfortunately for him, he's facing one of the teams in baseball that swings the most often in Atlanta.

With a swing rate around 55%, they are bound to make some solid contact against a pitcher who has difficulty finding outs and missing bats. This simplifies the handicap a great deal. Again, we have a team that swings a lot against a pitcher who lives in the strike zone and allows consistent contact. What do you think is going to happen? I expect runs.

I see the Braves going Over 5.5 runs about 50% of the time, which is a modest projection, especially at Coors Field, but I'm going to tweak my play. Given that Gomber has yet to see a lineup with the Braves' array of power hitters, I think they get to him early. Because of that, I'm rolling with their F5 total.

Prediction: Braves first five team total Over 3.5 (+130 at DraftKings)

Best bet

It should be no surprise that we will be picking on Gomber again with our Best Bet. We will roll with Austin Riley on the total bases market today. He's been Atlanta's most consistent hitter and he gets an ultra-friendly matchup.

Riley Over 1.5 bases is currently available at -150 on FanDuel, which is a little too juicy for me. We're going to try one better at Over 2.5 bases for plus money. Riley has three three-hit games this season and they've all come against starting pitchers who rank in the bottom 25% in barrel rate like Gomber does. 

I'm rolling with Riley to bring out the bat today as this number is far too friendly to ignore.

Pick: Austin Riley Over 2.5 total bases (+130 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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