Braves vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds: Weathes and Fried Control the Play

Once again, we have a matchup between the San Diego Padres and the Atlanta Braves. It's a game that features the current odds on favorite to win the World Series against, perhaps, one of the most star-filled teams in baseball.

These teams have already seen each once in this short season — playing each other last weekend — and the Braves were surprisingly swept. Since then, Atlanta has won six straight while San Diego has struggled, losing four of its previous five. 

What's my best bet for this matchup? Find out in my MLB picks for the Padres vs. Braves on April 17.

Braves vs Padres odds

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Braves vs Padres predictions

We have a great pitching matchup tonight in San Diego. I don't need to say a ton about Max Fried as most know about his talent. However, it's Ryan Weathers' strong start this season that may have surprised many, and he leads the reasons why we're on the Under tonight. 

Weathers had an atrocious year a season ago with an ERA that ended at nearly double digits, but, ERA never tells the whole story. However, no matter how you slice it, it wasn't a good season. 

Weathers has made some changes to his arsenal. His sweeper pitch has been highly effective, producing an xBA of .129. And although his fastball is still getting hit hard, it's not close to the rate it was a season ago, with an xBA of .257 against an actual batting average of over .300, showing he's been unlucky when using it.

Additionally, Weathers has kept the fly balls down a lot. In the past two seasons, he's had a fly ball rate of over 20%. This season, that number has hovered around 13%. He's accomplished that mark while already seeing one big bat lineup in the New York Mets.

This will be Weathers' stiffest test of the season thus far, but I'm confident he can do enough to keep this Under. The fastball has been his biggest issue throughout his career and will be his biggest issue today.

However, according to BallParkPal, winds moving to right field like they will tonight have historically reduced home runs by 18%. That's a nice feather in Weathers' cap, and some of those hard-hit balls that would leave the ball on a hot summer day in San Diego will stay in today. 

On the other end of the spectrum, Max Fried will be backed up by one of the best bullpens in baseball. Again, I don't need to say much about Fried, but he has a reasonably nice matchup tonight. We have little to no valuable data on what he's done this season, but we know historically what Fried has been.

That's usually a dominant fastball or curveball pitcher — both pitches produced a double-digit negative run value a season ago. Luckily for him, the Padres have struggled mightily against the curve in this matchup. I like him to do an excellent job of keeping them off balance tonight.

My projections put this total in the 7.5 range, so getting it an entire run higher feels like a steal, which I will happily take. 

My best bet: Under 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Braves vs Padres moneyline analysis

This game is priced correctly with the Braves hovering around -150 favorites and the Padres returning as +120 underdogs.

The Braves win it more often than not, and some of Weathers' hard-hit ball issues will eventually come back to haunt him here. It also helps that the Braves are good against lefties, with the second-best wOBA in baseball against them.

However, with rest, these bullpens come close to canceling each other out, which is typically a massive advantage for Atlanta. Additionally, the Padres are coming off being shut out, and they've historically responded well after those situations. Therefore, I have no pregame play on this one.

If San Diego strikes early, I may be interested in an in-game play on the Atlanta moneyline or run line, but otherwise, I'll stay away.

Braves vs Padres Over/Under analysis

We're on the Under here, like we talked about above. It's fair to wonder how Fried will respond in his first return after an injury, but I think so highly of Fried that I'm willing to look beyond that. We'll likely only see 60-70 pitches from him and get a heavy dosage of a bullpen that has produced a sub-3 ERA this season. 

These games between this pair earlier this season, say two or three, go Over. However, long term, in these situations, both sides have been good Under bets. The Padres' last six games against the NL East have all gone Under except one. 

Braves vs Padres game info

Braves vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Max Fried (0-0, 2.70 ERA): It's hard to take much away from Fried's three-inning appearance against the Washington Nationals. Fried looked uncomfortable throughout and left early with an apparent hamstring injury. This is his first appearance after a 15-day stint on the DL. We know what Fried did last season, and that was dominate. While he did give up an occasional home run, he ended the season with an xERA under three. I see no reason why this season will be any different.  

Ryan Weathers (1-0, 2.70 ERA): Besides some of the changes to his pitch arsenal discussed above, Weathers has seen a considerable velocity spike this season. It has propelled him to the best early start in this very young season. In addition, Weathers' hard-hit rate currently sits at 16% through two starts, an elite number and one of the best in the league. He saw action against the Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Mets thus far, holding the latter to just three hits and one earned run through five innings. 

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in the Padres' last six vs. the National League East. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Padres

Weather

Pages related to this topic