The Toronto Blue Jays must be happy they won’t have to see an American League East opponent for a while after their latest series loss to the Baltimore Orioles.
Unfortunately, their divisional escape leads them to a matchup against one of the best teams in the American League, the Texas Rangers.
The Rangers have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball, leading the AL West with a 42-26 record thanks to one of the best lineups in the Big Leagues.
Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman will be tasked with shutting the Rangers down. Can he and Martin Perez keep this game Under the total? I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet and a juicy same-game parlay in MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Rangers on Friday June 16.
Blue Jays vs Rangers odds
Blue Jays vs Rangers predictions
With the Blue Jays' latest loss to the Orioles yesterday, they're now an ugly 7-17 vs. American League East opponents. Now, they're 31-15 in their games outside the division, but the Rangers aren’t going to be your typical non-division opponent.
The Rangers’ +143 run differential is the best in the MLB, even better than the consensus best team in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays. The lineup is one of the league's most dangerous, as nobody has plated more runs this year than the Rangers.
But, if there’s a guy capable of shutting them down it’s Kevin Gausman. The Blue Jays ace is coming off a rough outing, against the Twins of all teams, but I’m not too worried about that. Besides a few outlier starts, Gausman looks like one of the most unhittable pitchers in the American League.
The combination of his mid-to-upper 90s fastball and his devastating splitter makes him an incredibly hard pitcher to square up. The right-hander is pitching to a 3.47 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .235 expected batting average. He also ranks in the 93rd percentile when it comes to strikeout rate.
He also has outstanding starts against the likes of the Astros, Orioles, Yankees, and Phillies, so he's more than capable of navigating a tough Rangers lineup.
Countering Gausman is Martin Perez. The veteran left-hander is still trying to find the magic from last year, which earned him his first All-Star selection. While the overall numbers aren’t great, Perez has been a much more effective pitcher at Globe Life Park.
Perez owns a sparkling 1.40 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .594 OPS when pitching at home this season. And while the Blue Jays have a dangerous lineup of their own, shockingly they haven’t produced as well vs. southpaws. But it’s more than that. They also never seem to be clicking all at once and struggle to get that clutch hit.
Toronto hits for a high average, just not with runners in scoring position, where they are hitting .236 which ranks 25th in the MLB. The team also ranks 23rd in OPS and 20th in wRC+ when facing off against left-handed pitchers this season.
Now, the total for this matchup opened at 8.5 and has been bumped up to 9 as of writing this. However, I believe this is an inflated number due to both Gausman and Perez coming off rough starts, and doesn’t properly reflect them as starting pitchers in this situation. I like this game to be low scoring early on and am targeting the Under on the five-inning total.
My best bet: Under 5 first five innings (-110 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Rangers same-game parlay
Under 9.5
Gausman 7+ strikeouts
Merrifield o1.5 TB
Like I said, I think the total is a little too elevated for this particular pitching matchup. But with no five-inning total available for many same-game parlays, let’s elevate the full game total by another half-run and start this one off by taking the Under 9.5.
Next, I’m adding the best strikeout man in the American League to keep racking up the Ks in Texas. Gausman’s 117 strikeouts and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings lead the AL. The Rangers are a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to strikeouts ranking 15th in K-rate vs. right-handed pitchers.
Gausman has struck out seven or more batters in 10 of his 14 starts this season. He also has one of the longer leashes in baseball, having thrown 101 or more pitches in nine starts. That means plenty of opportunities for punchouts. Adding 7+ strikeouts is a no-brainer here.
And I’m going to close things out with a total bases prop. I know Perez is better at home, but he still ranks in this ninth percentile in xBA and one guy on the Jays I think can have some success is Whit Merrifield. He’s quietly having a great season for the Jays. He’s hitting .308 this season and he is 10-28 (.357) in his career vs. Perez.
Merrifield is currently on a seven-game hitting streak where he has a .417 average, so I’ll close this out with him to go Over 1.5 total bases to give this SGP a +475 value.
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Blue Jays vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup at about -140 and have been moved to -145 as of Friday afternoon. This is a difficult game to handicap as a good case can be made for both teams.
Toronto has the better starter on the mound, as well as the better bullpen. While Perez has been much better at home for Texas and the Rangers’ lineup has undoubtedly been the more potent and consistent of the two. Because of that, I would likely need the line to drop a little more, either way, to make a play on the side.
If the Blue Jays get to the -130 range, they could have some value, but if the Rangers move to +130, I would say the value is with the home team as underdogs.
As for the total, I broke down above how I think the total is a little elevated. And as I said, I prefer the five-inning total, in part because both bullpens can be shaky at times. I don’t hate buying the hook and bumping the total up to 9.5 and taking the Under like we did for the SGP.
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Trend to know
The Under is 10-4-1 in the Blue Jays' last 15 vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Blue Jays vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas |
| Date: | Friday, June 16, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Southwest |
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (5-3, 3.12 ERA): Gausman is one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball. The right-hander. He has pitched at least six innings and limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 14 starts.
Martin Perez (6-2, 4.67 ERA): Despite the ERA not being what he would want it to be, he has allowed just four earned runs in 25 2/3 innings at home this season and the Rangers have managed to go 9-4 in his starts.
