One of the strangest early-season stats in baseball is that the weak-hitting Chicago White Sox have scored a run in the first inning 41.9% of the time — the second-best number in baseball.
Considering that they have one of the least productive lineups in the majors, my MLB picks are betting on that number to plummet over the course of the season. Chicago's matchup against the Houston Astros headlines my three best NRFI bets and YRFI bets for Friday, May 2.
Best NRFI/YRFI bets today
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NRFI (-119 at ProphetX)
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YRFI (-108 at ProphetX)
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NRFI (-125 at ProphetX)
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NRFI/YRFI bets for May 2
Nationals at Reds: NRFI (-119 at ProphetX)
Washington Nationals lefty Mitchell Parker is coming off an ugly outing where he allowed six earned runs through five innings. However, he had a sizzling 1.39 ERA through his first five starts this year, and I like him to start off strong against the Cincinnati Reds today.
The Reds are batting .222 against southpaws and they have an OPS of just .646 at home — the worst number in the NL.
Meanwhile, the Nationals plate 3.69 runs per game with an OPS of just .607 on the road. They'll find it tough to score early against Cincinnati ace Hunter Greene, who has a 2.75 ERA with an expected ERA of 2.89 through six starts.
Twins at Red Sox: YRFI (-108 at ProphetX)
The Boston Red Sox are sending Brayan Bello to the hill for tonight's clash with the Minnesota Twins. Bello has a 3.27 ERA through two starts but his 6.33 FIP and 7.43 xERA suggest regression. Bello had a 4.50 ERA with an OBA of .276 in the first inning in 30 starts last year.
Twins starter Joe Ryan also looks due for regression. The righty has a 3.18 ERA but sits in bottom 10th percentile in barrel rate and average exit velocity. The Red Sox lead the majors in average exit velocity and are second in barrel rate. They are also sixth in OPS (.749) and fourth in run first inning percentage (39.39%).
The Twins score in the opening frame 31.3% of the time and they've been hitting the ball better recently, boasting an OPS of .755 over the last 15 days.
Astros at White Sox: NRFI (-125 at ProphetX)
The Chicago White Sox ranking second in the majors in first inning run percentage (41.9%) is shocking when you consider that they are 25th in runs per game (3.52) and dead-last in OPS (.621). There is going to be major regression in that RFI number over the rest of the year.
Today, the White Sox are facing the Houston Astros and Framber Valdez, who has a 4.00 ERA. Valdez pitched to a 3.06 ERA with three Top-10 Cy Young finishes over the last three years and that resume indicates positive regression. Keep in mind that Chicago has been even worse against lefties like Valdez, posting an OPS of .569.
Meanwhile, the Astros have also been awful at the dish, ranking 28th in the majors in OPS (.605) on the road. They plate a run in the opening frame just 16.7% of the time — the worst number in the majors.
❓What are NRFI and YRFI bets❓
NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) bets add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI bet is a wager that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're betting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.
A YRFI bet is the exact opposite. You're betting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.
NRFI and YRFI bets add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for bettors looking for a quick resolution.
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