The Houston Astros head to the Bay Area for an interleague series with the San Francisco Giants (32-34) that begins Monday night at Oracle Park.
I head over to the prop market for tonight’s best bet and give my Astros vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks on Monday, June 10.
Astros vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Monday’s series opener pits two young starting pitchers against one another in Spencer Arrighetti and Kyle Harrison. Both have been a tad wobbly in their respective performance while still displaying plenty of promise, making it a game of high variance. I’ll turn my attention toward the prop market to cut down some of that variance and focus more on what we know with greater certainty.
For example, we can confidently say that Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve mashes left-handed pitching. Now in his 14th season in the Big Leagues, the diminutive damage dealer has amassed a career 145 wRC+ against southpaws.
We have a long track record of success to fall back on and I’m choosing not to ignore it. He has a .323 BA, .887 OPS, and .181 ISO against lefties, both hitting for contact and power better than he does against righties.
Harrison is one of the top young arms for the San Francisco Giants but still has much to prove. He posted a 4.55 xERA, 5.53 FIP, and 5.01 xFIP across his first seven starts in the MLB as a 21-year-old a year ago. This year’s 4.18 ERA is decent but his 4.69 xERA is a concern yet again.
Most of his underlying metrics are worrisome. He doesn’t make a ton of batters miss (30th percentile chase rate, 36th percentile whiff rate) and allows poor contact quality when batters connect (12th percentile barrel rate, 16th percentile hard-hit rate, 14th percentile average exit velocity). Pitching to contact is fine if you’re inducing the soft variety, but that’s not what the 22-year-old has been doing.
Harrison has allowed 3+ earned runs in each of his last five starts. The wind is blowing out at nine mph which is standard at Oracle Park, where the youngster has a 4.65 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 31 IP this season.
The Astros have hit lefties well this season overall but have gone cold lately (73 wRC+ and .268 wOBA across the last 20 days). One player who we can confidently say hits southpaws well is Altuve, so I’ll isolate his total bases prop at 1.5 and play the Over as my best bet.
Astros vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases
Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 hits
Giants moneyline
This seemingly uncorrelated three-leg SGP results in some nice plus-money odds. I don’t see the final outcome ringing true to be as ridiculous as the odds seem to indicate. Harrison pitches to contact and batters have been happy to smash his offerings. Shortstop Jeremy Pena has been effective against lefties, posting a .829 OPS and .309 BA since 2022.
Outside of Altuve, Pena, and Yordan Alvarez, Houston doesn’t have much in this lineup that scares you. Alex Bregman is playing through a wrist injury and has his lowest OPS (.710) of his nine-year career. Houston is just 13-17 on the road while San Francisco is 17-14 at home, so one could make the case that there’s some value with the Giants.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Giants odds
Astros vs Giants live odds
Astros vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+140) | San Francisco +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: Houston -125 | San Francisco +105
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Astros vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Giants have been money with Harrison on the mound, winning eight of his last 10 starts.
- The total is a funny handicap in that Houston has been dead set on the Under (24-39 O/U) while San Francisco has played to the Over (35-29 O/U).
- Some strong trends are supporting the Under as the Astros are 10-20 O/U on the road while the Giants are 13-17 O/U at home. Houston has chased the Under in 12 of its last 15 away games.
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Astros vs Giants trend
Jose Altuve has gone Over 1.5 total bases in three of his last four games against a left-handed starting pitching. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Giants
Astros vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 6-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:46 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCHN, NBCS-Bay Area |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arighetti (3-5, 5.79 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Kyle Harrison (4-3, 4.18 ERA) |
Astros vs Giants latest injuries
Astros vs Giants weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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