The Houston Astros improved to 11-9 on the season with an 11-7 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. The Astros will now be looking for their fifth win in a row when these two meet again for a Saturday afternoon matchup in Canada.
Will Houston find a way to stay hot against a good Toronto team? Keep reading our Astros vs. Blue Jays MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, April 30 to find out.
Astros vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Astros opened as +115 underdogs in this game, and the line has actually moved in all sorts of ways since then. You can find Houston for as low as +105 on one sportsbook, but the team is also +118 elsewhere — which is why it’s so important to be checking your options.
The total, meanwhile, has remained at 8.5 since it first became available, but you might have to pay a little juice to take the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 4/30/2022 at 1:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, April 30, 2022
• First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
• TV: ATT Sportsnet-SouthWest, Sportsnet
Astros vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Luis Garcia (1-0, 4.60 ERA): Over three starts this season, Garcia has allowed eight earned runs in 15 2-3 innings of work. Most of that damage came in his most recent start against this Blue Jays team, as he allowed five earned in six innings in that start. Garcia struck out six batters in that game, but he also allowed two homers. He’ll need to find a way to keep the ball in the park in this one.
Jose Berrios (1-0, 4.91 ERA): Berrios had an extremely rocky outing in his first start of the season, as he gave up four earned runs and couldn’t make it out of the first inning against the Texas Rangers on April 8. He has, however, bounced back rather nicely, allowing just six earned runs in his last 18 innings on the mound. His two most recent starts, both against the Boston Red Sox, show that he is really finding his groove. Berrios has given up just three earned runs in his last two starts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Astros: Jose Altuve 2B (Out), Ryan Pressly P (Out), Jake Meyers OF (Out), Lance McCullers Jr. P (Out), Taylor Jones 1B (Out).
Blue Jays: Ryan Borucki P (Out), Cavan Biggio P (Out), Hyun-Jin Ryu P (Out), Teoscar Hernandez OF (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out), Nate Pearson P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Astros are 5-1 in their last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays
Astros vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Astros have gotten pretty hot in the last two weeks, as they’ve won four straight and five of their last six. Houston has done that thanks to some stellar pitching performances from its starters and bullpen, but the team’s offense finally woke up on Friday. For just the second time all year, the Astros were able to reach double digits in runs scored. They’ll now try to stay hot in this meeting with Berrios.
For what it’s worth, Houston’s hitters have had some success against Berrios in the past. In fact, the Astros that have faced the righty are a combined 20 for 67 against him, and that .370 team batting average is extremely high. One of the guys who's gotten in on the fun against Berrios is Alex Bregman, the most dangerous hitter on Houston.
It’s a pretty small sample size, but the third baseman is 4-for-10 with two doubles, a homer and four RBIs against Berrios in his career. It would be huge for the Astros if Bregman is able to get it going here, and it is worth noting that he should be feeling good after homering last night. If Bregman has a big night, the Astros will likely score a ton of runs.
Also, while the Blue Jays definitely have an edge in the starting pitching battle in this game, Garcia is more than capable of keeping his team competitive. For as up and down as he can be, Houston has won in all three of his appearances this year. The Astros also have a Top 10 bullpen ERA coming into this contest, and the relievers have been especially reliable over the team’s recent hot streak.
Prediction: Astros moneyline (+118 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
These two teams combined to score 18 runs when they met on Friday, and that really isn’t all that surprising. While the Astros offense isn’t quite as stacked as it once was, there’s still a lot of talent in place in this lineup. And Houston has quite a few young players that it is expecting big things from, so it should only get better moving forward.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have one of the best collections of bats in baseball. Toronto is stacked with power hitters that can change games with one swing, so the Over is never out of reach with the Blue Jays — even if the team has primarily played games that have gone Under thus far.
The Over has actually hit in each of the last two meetings between these teams, with that pair of contests seeing the two combining to score a total of 33 runs. This game has a chance to be another one in which the teams reach the double-digit mark, as both of these starters are capable of struggling in short spurts.
The Over also happens to be 8-3 in the last 11 games that the Astros have played as road underdogs. If that’s not enough, it’s 4-1 in the last five games that the Jays have played against AL West opponents.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-110 at Unibet)
Best bet
It’s a little jarring to see the Houston team total so low in a game the team has a really good chance to win, with a total set at 8.5. This Astros team has scored at least four runs in four of its last six games, and also happens to be coming off of one of its best offensive performances of the season.
Now, Houston takes on a good starting pitcher, but Berrios is definitely capable of giving up three or four runs over seven innings. He’ll also be turning the ball over to a bullpen that hasn’t been great to start the season: Toronto’s 3.95 bullpen ERA is only better than eight teams in MLB.
Overall, it’s just hard to see the Over not hitting without the Astros doing their part, and the Over does seem like the right play in this game. With that said, this is almost a better value considering you don’t even need Houston to score half of the runs required for the game total to hit.
Pick: Astros team total Over 3.5 runs (-134 at Unibet)
