Angels vs Astros Picks and Predictions: Halos Hold Pitching Advantage

Houston looks to extend its first-place lead in the AL West with a home win against the Halos today. But with Patrick Sandoval on the mound facing Jose Urquidy, backing the road dog is the right play. Find out more in our Angels vs. Astros betting picks.

Last Updated: Jul 2, 2022 12:51 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Patrick Sandoval Los Angeles Angels MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros (49-27) sit atop the AL West standings and have the second-best record in both the AL and the MLB. They’ve been hot lately, too, winning eight of their last 10 games including four straight.

That included Friday’s Game 1 victory over the Angels (37-42), a team that’s mostly been in a free fall over the last two months. The Halos send left-hander Patrick Sandoval to the mound for Game 2 and the Astros counter with Jose Urquidy.

Check out our free MLB picks and predictions for Angels vs. Astros on Saturday, July 2.

Angels vs Astros odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Houston opened at -131 but the line has widened. The Astros currently sit between -143 and -156 depending on the book. The total opened at 8.5 across all sites and has not budged.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Angels vs Astros predictions

Picks made on 7/01/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Angels vs Astros game info

Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Date: Saturday, July 2, 2022
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports West, AT&T SportsNet Southwest

Angels vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Patrick Sandoval (3-2, 2.63 ERA): Sandoval has been a solid option for the Angels this season amid uncertainty elsewhere on the team. The 25-year-old left-hander struggled during his first two years in the big leagues, but that’s to be expected considering he's so young. Sandoval showed progress last year with a 3.62 ERA and has taken another step forward in 2022. His 3.99 xERA definitely points toward some regression from his 3.63 ERA, and his 4.04 xFIP is well above his 3.20 FIP as well. His 22.8% K-rate is good but he walks too many batters (10.5% rate).

Jose Urquidy (6-3, 4.36 ERA): It’s been a struggle this year for Urquidy, who posted an ERA below 4.00 throughout his first three seasons with the Astros. His 4.36 ERA isn’t great but his 5.83 xERA indicates that things could be worse. A 4.82 FIP is never what you what to see. He hardly strikes out any batters (17% K-rate) but does do a good job of limiting walks (4.9%). He’s allowed only one earned run across 13 innings in his last two starts, however, so perhaps he’s finding his groove.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Betting trend to know

The Astros are 0-5 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Astros

Angels vs Astros picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Patrick Sandoval has been a bright spot for the Angels, something that’s been difficult to come by this season. The young left-hander’s 2.63 ERA is excellent, but his 3.99 xERA points toward regression.

Houston ranks 11th in wOBA and ninth in wRC+ against left-handers on the season. If we look at the last 10 days, those ranks jump to second in both wOBA and wRC+. The Astros have been hot against lefties, which isn’t a good sign for Sandoval.

Jose Urquidy gets the nod for Houston and his numbers aren’t great this year, highlighted by an ugly 5.83 xERA and an 8.6% barrel rate that ranks near the bottom of the league among qualified starters. The Angels have mostly been lifeless at the plate outside of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, but they’ve gained a little bit of steam in recent weeks.

Over the last 10 days, they rank 19th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+. Those numbers won’t win you a World Series, but they’re better than what we’ve seen lately. Taylor Ward has been a spark plug atop the lineup and gives the Halos a solid top four that features Trout, Ohtani, and first-baseman Jared Walsh.

Despite the numbers over the last 10 days, the Astros are 0-5 in their last five games against a left-handed starter. I would take Houston to win if this was a coin flip, but it’s not. Urquidy is a very untrustworthy starting pitcher and the Angels’ lineup has shown a little bit of life lately.

They’ll have the better pitcher on the mound as well and can be had for plus money, so I'll side with the Halos.

Prediction: Angels moneyline (+139 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

I mentioned it above, but I don’t trust Urquidy whatsoever. He’s looked better in his last two starts (one earned run across 13 innings) but we have a decent sample size on him and it’s not an encouraging picture. He doesn’t strike out many batters (17% K-rate) and allows batters to make good contact (8.6% barrel rate).

That’s a profile I’m looking to fade. His 5.83 xERA checks out when evaluating the rest of his profile, and I think the Angels’ offense should be able to contribute to the Over. Sandoval’s 3.9% barrel rate is solid and the rest of his numbers are pretty good, but he’s facing an Astros lineup that has been among the best in the league.

It’s unsure if Yordan Alvarez will be able to play after suffering a concussion when colliding with shortstop Jeremy Pena on Wednesday. Still, Houston ranks sixth in wOBA and fourth in wRC+ over the last 10 days, so this lineup will be dangerous even if Alvarez remains out.

Both teams have trended toward the Under this season, but I believe that’s giving us a good line in an Urquidy game. His numbers indicate that he’ll give up plenty of runs in some of his starts, and Houston’s lineup is always a threat to hang a crooked number.

I like the Over.

Prediction: Over 8.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Best bet

I’m targeting Patrick Sandoval’s strikeout prop for my best bet. It’s listed at 4.5 across most books, and you can get +105 odds on the Over at DraftKings.

The left-hander averages 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings with a 22.8% K-rate. Houston typically avoids strikeouts with a 20.0% K-rate on the season, but they have a 25.9% K-rate over the last 10 days against left-handed pitching.

Sandoval has struck out at least five batters in each of his last three starts. He faced Houston once this season way back in his second start of the season and got five punchouts despite pitching only four innings.

Pick: Sandoval Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)

MLB parlays

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