One quarter of all money wagered at BetMGM in the FIFA World Cup futures market is backing tournament favorite Spain, according to insights from the national sportsbook.
La Roja is the reigning European champion and World Cup favorite at +450, just ahead of its rival, France (+500).
Key Takeaways
- The odds leaders separated themselves from the back in support from bettors.
- No team received more bets to win their group than the USA.
- Kylian Mbappe, who scored a hat trick in the 2022 World Cup Final, is the Golden Boot odds leader
The World Cup begins Thursday, when one of three host countries, Mexico, takes on South Africa at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. As the days continue to count down until the opening kickoff, BetMGM customers are showing heavy support for the top two teams.
Spain, which did not lose or draw a match at the 2024 European Championship, is responsible for 17.2% of tickets and 25.4% of the handle in the World Cup odds outright winner market. France is close behind, with 16% of bets and 22% of the money.
England, third in odds to win the competition (+700), is the next in popularity, boasting 11.9% of tickets and 9.5% of the handle.
Portugal (+800) is fourth in total wagers (10.6%) but third in financial backing, claiming 10.8% of the pot. Brazil (+900) is fifth in bets (8.4%) and fourth in total money (10.1%).
The defending World Cup champion, Argentina, is not capturing the same public excitement at its competitors. Only 6.5% of wagers and 6% of the money is on Lionel Messi’s squad, both the sixth-highest amounts in their respective categories.
Of several notable futures bets reported by BetMGM, a $1,000 to win $2.5 million backing Haiti (+250,000) stands out as the ticket with the highest risk and the highest reward. There is also a $1,500 bet on the USA at +6,600 odds to win the tournament for a $99,000 payout, and a $1,000 wager on Iraq to win $1 million at +100,000.
Largely thanks to that one bet, Haiti is BetMGM’s biggest liability, ahead of Spain and the USA.
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Who will reach the knockout?
This year’s World Cup will mark the first time the tournament fields 48 teams – which means that 12 groups are now needed to determine the knockout bracket.
The most popular picks to win each group are as follows:
- Group A (Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czechia): Mexico 63.1%
- Group B (Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland): Canada 54.8%
- Group C (Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland): Morocco 51.7%
- Group D (USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey): USA 85.4%
- Group E (Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador): Germany 39.8%
- Group F (Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia): Netherlands 51.5%
- Group G (Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand): Egypt 55.6%
- Group H (Spain, Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay): Spain 63.9%
- Group I (France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway): France 58.8%
- Group J (Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan): Argentina 90.2%
- Group K (Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia): Colombia 73.4%
- Group L (England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama): England 52.5%
Unsurprisingly, the most bet team to win any group in both tickets and handle is the USA. Despite that, USA's World Cup odds to top Group D have lengthened from +100 at opening to +138 at the time of writing.
The USA (-1,000) is also the most bet team to qualify for the knockout round in terms of wagers. However, South Korea (-300), which will also be in action on opening day on Thursday, is the most bet team in regard to the handle.
World Cup Golden Boot odds
The final major World Cup betting market is the Golden Boot odds, which is led by Frenchman Kylian Mbappe (+550). The 27-year-old bagged a hat trick in the 2022 World Cup Final and leads all players in both tickets (18.6%) and handle (34.6%).
England captain Harry Kane isn’t far behind at +650, with 12.4% of wagers and 21.9% of the pot supporting him. Prolific Norwegian goalscorer Erling Haaland is tied with Spaniard Mikel Oyarzabal at +1,200 odds, despite this being his country’s first tournament appearance since 1998. He has 10.5% of bets and 7.7% of the money, while the Spaniard has 3.1% and 2.1%, respectively.
The only other player with at least 10% of bets is Spain’s Lamine Yamal (+2,000), who has 12.1% of wagers and 8.7% of the handle. He hasn’t played since he suffered a bad hamstring injury while playing for Barcelona in April, but he’s expected to be fit for the beginning of the tournament.
