San Antonio Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama is the new favorite to win NBA MVP at prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Despite the trends at these platforms, traditional sportsbooks still have reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the outright leader.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi has Wembanyama ahead of Gilgeous-Alexander in MVP prediction markets.
- Sportsbooks still have Gilgeous-Alexander favored, although Wemby has closed significant ground.
- Wemby is also the biggest Most Improved Player liability and Defensive Player of the Year favorite at BetMGM.
Wembanyama, still only 21 years old, is averaging 31 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 4.8 blocks on 60.3% shooting through the first four games of the 2025-26 NBA season. The San Antonio Spurs are also one of four remaining undefeated teams despite missing the playoffs a year ago.
Wemby’s red-hot start allowed him to surge ahead in MVP markets at prediction market platforms. Kalshi has the Frenchman with a 31% chance to win the NBA MVP award, while Gilgeous-Alexander is second at 27%. He was the leader on Wednesday.
Nikola Jokic (19%), Luka Doncic (14%), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (12%) are next in Kalshi’s NBA MVP market.
BetMGM still has Gilgeous-Alexander, who opened at +450, as a +250 favorite in the NBA MVP odds. However, Wembanyama is already down from +1,800 at opening to +275, putting him ahead of Jokic, a three-time MVP (+250 at opening, +375 current).
The sportsbook also reported that the Spurs’ 7-foot-4 center leads MVP betting markets in both tickets (21.2%) and handle (25.4%). Gilgeous-Alexander is fifth in wagers (5.8%) and money (20.7%).
Jokic is third in bets (9.2%) and fourth in money wagered (8.1%).
The only other player with odds below +1,000 is Doncic (+500), who is second in tickets (15.5%) and handle (20.7%).
Wembanyama dominates NBA awards markets
Prediction platforms differ from traditional sports betting sites since their users dictate the price of contracts, associated with various outcomes, based on the demand. Sportsbooks set their odds price for users, who compete against the house instead of other users.
BetMGM revealed that Wembanyama is the biggest liability to win not only MVP, but also to win the Most Improved Player award. He’s only +3,500 to claim the honor, but he’s fourth in tickets (5.5%) and second in handle (7.1%). Amen Thompson (+900) is the leader in NBA Most Improved Player odds, tickets (8.4%), and handle (8.6%).
Kalshi, however, has given Wembanyama a 26% chance to win the MIP, while Thompson is only at 13%.
BetMGM also has San Antonio’s young superstar as a -225 favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, while 16.1% of tickets and 41.8% of the money wagered in that market are backing Wembanyama (both leading amounts). Kalshi has him down for a 77% chance to win the DPOY, while Chet Holmgren (15% chance) is second.
The success of Wemby and the Spurs has also trickled over to the Coach of the Year market, where Mitch Johnson is the odds-on leader (+500) and has the highest share of the pot (25.8%). Johnson has a leading 23% chance to claim the award at Kalshi, while the Miami Heat’s Erik Spoelstra (12% chance) is second.
Wemby’s chance at NBA history
Derrick Rose was 22 years and 191 days old when he won the 2010-11 NBA MVP, making him the youngest player to ever win the award.
Wembanyama, who will be 22 years and 98 days old on the final day of the regular season, would break that record if he won MVP this year.
His first matchup with his fellow MVP contenders will come when the Spurs face Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers on Nov. 5. He’ll also face Jokic and the Denver Nuggets on Nov. 28 and Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder on Dec. 23 and 25.
