Saturday’s Final Four matchups between Connecticut, Illinois, Arizona, and Michigan, are expected to be the closest in 45 years, according to Sports Odds History.
If the lines hold until tip off, this will be the first time since 1981 that both Final Four games closed with spreads of less than two points.
Key Takeaways
- Spreads for Illinois vs. UConn, Michigan vs. Illinois are both set at 1.5 points.
- UConn lost to Arizona and beat Illinois earlier this year, while Michigan crushed Illinois.
- Seven of the last eight national champions were first seeds.
This year’s group of Final Four participants includes two No. 1 seeds (Michigan and Arizona), a second seed (UConn), and a third seed (Illinois), all of whom are aiming to become immortalized in the sport’s history.
Anything can happen in the best-of-one format followed by March Madness. That’s taken to another level in a year like this, when oddsmakers are having a hard time finding any separation between the opponents.
Illinois is a -1.5 (-120) favorite over UConn at FanDuel Sportsbook as of Friday morning. The Illini also have -134 moneyline odds to the Huskies’ +112.
Michigan is a -1.5 (-110) favorite against Arizona, with -125 moneyline odds.
Using the implied probability of the moneyline Final Four odds, the team that has been deemed the least likely to win its Final Four showdown, UConn, still has a 47.2% chance of advancing to the national championship stage. Illinois, the most likely team, has a 57.3% implied chance of competing for a national title.
Despite representing three different conferences, several of these teams already crossed paths earlier this year. So, before looking ahead to the possible national championship matchup, here’s what the past has to say about the upcoming games.
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The past predicts the future
UConn hosted Arizona in both teams’ fifth game of the season on Nov. 19. Playing without potentially their best player and a future first-team All-Big East member, Tarris Reed Jr., the Huskies suffered a 71-67 defeat to the high-powered Wildcats. The Wildcats’ leading scorer, Brayden Burries, only scored four points.
The Huskies also faced off against Illinois less than two weeks later in Madison Square Garden. That game ended 74-61 in their favor, as the Illini were held to 32% shooting from the field and 21% from three.
UConn’s Reed Jr. and Illinois’ Keaton Wagler, both the leading scorers for their teams, were held to two and three points, respectively. For added context, they averaged 21.8 and 17.5 points per game in March Madness, respectively.
The third of three previous matchups between the Final Four teams came near the end of the regular season on Feb. 27, when Illinois hosted their Big Ten rival, Michigan. That game ended in a resounding win for the visitors, who shot 53% from the field in an 84-70 victory.
FanDuel’s March Madness odds show that Michigan is the favorite to win the national championship game at +150. They also indicate that the winner of the next two games is likely to come from the right side of the bracket, as Arizona is next at +190. Illinois (+430) and Connecticut (+650) are both considerably behind.
FanDuel also published lookahead lines for possible championship game matchups. Michigan would be a -6.5 favorite against UConn and -5.5 against Illinois, while Arizona would be -5.5 against both the Huskies and the Illini.
The most probable upset would be Illinois (+180 moneyline odds) taking down either Arizona or Michigan, while the least likely long shot would be UConn (+210 moneyline odds) knocking off Michigan.
Let's say UConn beats Illinois ...
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) April 1, 2026
Here's how they would stack up against Arizona or Michigan 👀 pic.twitter.com/JxNS7biD2o
What’s at stake
A first seed won March Madness in seven of the last eight NCAA Tournaments, dating back to 2017. The one exception was the Dan Hurley-led UConn team in 2023, which navigated a path through the entire bracket as a fourth seed.
Hurley’s Huskies also won the title as a first seed in 2024, and they lost to eventual champions Florida by just two points as an eighth seed last year.
Despite that pedigree, UConn is considered the largest underdog left in the tournament. A win for Michigan, Illinois, or Arizona would represent their coach’s first national championship and the program’s first in 29 years (Arizona), 37 years (Michigan), or ever (Illinois).
