The 2024 NFL season has been dominated by huge upsets, and Week 3 was no different, as numerous underdogs won outright despite being +5.5 or longer against the spread.
Per Ben Fawkes, NFL underdogs of 5.5+ points improved to 13-2 ATS this season, including nine outright wins, while going 4-0 on Sunday’s Week 3 slate.
The public lost big again for the second consecutive Sunday, even with Kansas City winning by five on the road against Atlanta on Sunday Night Football. Per Fawkes’ Substack, the three most bet point spreads by the public were Saints -3, Buccaneers -6, and Raiders -6.
All three of these teams lost outright as home favorites on Sunday. New Orleans lost 15-12, Tampa Bay got routed 26-7, and the Raiders fell into a 33-7 deficit before scoring a couple of late touchdowns in the fourth quarter to wind up losing 36-22 to Carolina.
Public vs. sharp money
The carnage continued in other NFL betting markets on Sunday. All three of the most bet point total overs went Under. The public was on Lions-Cardinals Over 51.5, which finished 20-13, Over 49.5 Saints-Eagles finished 15-12 with a 49.5 O/U, and Broncos-Buccaneers was 26-7 with an O/U of 41.
The point total Under was a bit more favorable to the public with both of Sunday’s most popular Week 3 Unders cashing. This included under 38.5 between Browns and Giants, which finished 21-15 despite being 21-7 at halftime, and the Under 35 for Chargers-Steelers landed with a final score of 20-10.
Sharp money came in on the Panthers at +6, attracting money to move down to +5.5, which proved to be a slam-dunk wager. A miss came with backing the Chargers at +2.5 against the Steelers on the road, which got derailed when Justin Herbert exited the game early after aggravating his ankle injury.
Four other sharp plays that came in at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook included Eagles +3, Broncos +6.5, Rams +7, and Falcons +3.5. These went 3-1 ATS, with the first three teams winning outright, while Atlanta only managed to score three points in the second half to fall by five points to Kansas City at home on Sunday night.
The public did go 2-1 with the most bet underdogs to win outright, as Green Bay at +130 won 30-14 on the road against Tennessee and the Eagles won 15-12 over the Saints at +125. The loser was the Chargers at +120, who held a three-point lead going into half-time before being shut out in the second half.
