Conor McGregor holds a special place in the heart of bettors, and there might be no layoff long enough to change that, especially when he’s a significant underdog, according to the latest McGregor vs. Holloway odds.
Key Takeaways
- Conor McGregor is still a substantial underdog to Max Holloway after his five-year layoff.
- The Irish fighter is getting 87% of the money at FanDuel.
- The rest of the UFC 329 card is generating significant action.
The famous, and sometimes infamous, MMA fighter hasn’t stepped inside the octagon in nearly five years. Heading into Saturday’s UFC 329, multiple sportsbooks reported heavy betting splits in favor of the former UFC Featherweight and Lightweight Champion against another former champ in Max Holloway.
“Early action was solely on McGregor due to the mix of hype and value with the big plus money price,” Caesars Sportsbook lead combat sports trader Brandon Yaeger said.
“Since the odds have come down, we've started to see a good amount of Holloway bets starting to come in. McGregor is still dominating the bet count 3:1.”
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Notorious support
At BetMGM, McGregor opened as a +250 underdog when the fight was announced on May 16. He’s down to +185, and 87% of the bets and 74% of the handle are supporting “The Notorious” on the moneyline.
DraftKings reported that just 29% of the money and 40% of the bets are on Holloway, who went from a -310 favorite to -218. Caesars had Holloway as high as -420, but those odds have been cut in half over the last two months.
FanDuel was the most conservative with this fight, starting Holloway at -156 and McGregor at +130. The underdog is now +182, but McGregor is getting 87% of the tickets and 74% of the money.
Prediction markets have contracts on what will be said on air during the fight, with McGregor vs. Holloway mention markets available.
Heart vs. head
Bettors are left deciding between their hearts and their heads. McGregor (22-6) lost three of his last four fights, including to Dustin Poirier twice in 2021 in his last two UFC events. He had to cancel a scheduled fight against Michael Chandler in June 2024 because of an injury before the Irishman served an 18-month suspension for missing three mandated drug tests.
Holloway (27-9), famous and accomplished in his own right, lost his last bout in March to Charles Oliveira by judges’ decision. He last took on McGregor in August 2013, losing by unanimous decision.
“Conor McGregor in his prime was truly awesome, but he hasn't fought since 2021,” BetMGM trading manager Alex Rella said. “Who knows what version of Conor is going to show up. On the other hand, Max Holloway has never stopped being an elite fighter. There are few fighters in the world that can beat Max in a straight-up striking battle."
Rest of the card
The main event isn’t the only fight drawing significant action. Yaeger said the entire main card is the most-bet numbered UFC fight at Caesars this year.
DraftKings bettors are torn on the main card’s first match as 51% of the bets are on Terrance McKinney (-135 favorite), while King Green (+114) has taken 56% of the money so far. Lone’er Kavanagh (-218) is getting 78% of both the tickets and handle in his bout against Brandon Royval (+180).
The handle is split evenly between Cory Sandhagen (-135) and Mario Bautista (+114), but the favorite has seen 67% of the wagers. In the final lead-up bout to the main event, +124 underdog Paddy Pimblett is dominating tickets (81%) and money (91%) against Benoit Saint-Denis (-148).
In the preliminary fights, Alessandro Costa (-245), Ryan Gandra (-130), Cody Garbrandt (+330), and Elisha Ellison (+1,300) are all getting at least 90% of the handle against their opponents.
“Prelims fights are starting to pick up as well now that it's fight week,” Yaeger said. “This card has a nice mix of name value and competitiveness from top to bottom, which is helping with the betting action.”
