Erling Haaland’s Norway is the only underdog to capture the eye of public bettors ahead of the World Cup quarterfinals.
Key Takeaways
- Norway upset Brazil in the Round of 16 as a +370 pre-match underdog.
- The three favored QF teams received at least 81% of moneyline bets in their respective matches.
- Haaland is third in odds to win the Golden Boot (+700).
The World Cup almost produced a marquee upset Tuesday. Argentina faced a 2-0 deficit against Egypt in the 79th minute, but Lionel Messi helped lead a dramatic comeback that sent the defending champion into the next round without the help of extra time.
Upsets have been few and far between in the knockouts. Paraguay’s win over Germany in penalties in the Round of 32 was the most unexpected result, but there were only a few true betting upsets. Norway (+370 pre-match underdog) taking down Brazil and Switzerland (+260) beating Colombia in the Round of 16 were the others.
Belgium’s win over the USMNT and England’s victory against Mexico were technically betting upsets, although the teams’ pre-match moneyline odds were very similar in both instances.
DraftKings bettors don’t expect the quarterfinals to be a time of upsets.
DraftKings Network said 85% of bets and 87% of the handle is on France to beat Morocco in the first match of the round, which is a rematch of a 2022 World Cup semifinal.
Eighty-one percent of bets and 91% of the money is on pre-tournament favorite Spain to take down Belgium.
Neither of those compares to the breakdown for Argentina’s match against Switzerland.
Ninety-four percent of bets and more than 99% of the handle are on Messi’s squad to advance to the semifinal. DraftKings Network shows 100% for Argentina’s handle and 0% for Switzerland’s on its website.
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Bettors like Norway over England
If an upset is going to happen in the upcoming round, DraftKings users believe it will occur in Norway’s encounter with England.
DraftKings’ World Cup odds at the time of writing have the Norwegians as +180 (35.7% implied chance) underdogs to qualify for the semifinals. England is -225 (69.2%).
An even 50% of bets were assigned to both Norway and England. However, 81% of the handle was placed in support of the underdog.
Norway is making just its fourth World Cup appearance - and its first since 1998. It had never progressed past the Round of 16 or won more than one game at the competition, meaning that it has already produced a historic performance.
Haaland is at the center of his country’s success. With seven goals in four matches, he is tied for second in the Golden Boot race, level with Kylian Mbappe and one goal behind Messi, and third in Golden Boot odds (+700). He also has +100 odds of scoring against England during Saturday’s match.
World Cup odds
France is the leader in odds to win the World Cup at +180 (35.7% chance). Spain (+370) and Argentina (+400) are immediately behind, while England (+470) rounds out the top group of contenders.
Norway (+1,500) is top among long shots, followed by Morocco (+2,800), Switzerland (+3,000) and Belgium (+3,000).
