Following dominant performances in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots enter conference championship week as decided favorites.
The Seahawks – the No. 1 seed in the NFC – are the consensus favorites at sports betting sites over the rival Los Angeles Rams. And despite being the higher seed and the home team, the Denver Broncos are the underdogs against the Patriots on the AFC side of the bracket.
Key Takeaways
- The Broncos were favored to beat the Patriots before news broke that Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle.
- The Rams and Seahawks split their regular-season series with a combined score of 58-57.
- The Patriots were already bet up to -5.5 after opening at -4.5.
The Broncos were favored to beat the Patriots until head coach Sean Payton revealed that quarterback Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle just a few plays before the team's game-winning field goal over the Buffalo Bills in overtime. Nix finished the drive but was seen grimacing toward the end.
This seems to be the play that ended Bo Nix's season 👇pic.twitter.com/7Ky2DGkYok https://t.co/YIrgFEkiv2
— Covers (@Covers) January 18, 2026
“The AFC Championship took an unexpected turn Saturday night with the announcement that Bo Nix would miss the remainder of the season. That news immediately shifted the landscape, flipping Denver from the favorite to the underdog,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook.
The line opened with the Patriots at -4.5 at Caesars and has already moved to -5.5. New England is favored on the moneyline at -265 odds.
“We expect sharper bettors to shape this line throughout the week as the market forms its opinion on Jarrett Stidham,” said Feazel.
Bettors have been quick to back New England in a conference championship game against a backup QB.
The Patriots have received 28.5% of all Super Bowl winner handle wagered at theScore Bet since the end of the Bills-Broncos game.
“That’s the second-most handle accrued behind only the Seahawks’ 35% in that time, which coincides with the start of their dominant performance against the 49ers,” said a theScore Bet spokesperson.
As for those Seahawks and the NFC side of the bracket, Seattle opened as and remains a -2.5 favorite. However, the Seahawks' moneyline odds shortened to -157, while the Rams lengthened to +131. The over/under is listed at 47.5.
“The football gods have blessed us with a third installment of Rams-Seahawks. These teams know each other inside and out, and this matchup will undoubtedly draw the most action of the two games on the slate next weekend,” said Feazel.
The NFC West rivals split their regular-season series at one game apiece. The Rams won the first meeting in Week 11, 21-19, and the Seahawks got their revenge in Week 16 in an overtime thriller that finished 38-37. That means the aggregate score of the two contests was a near-even 58-57.
The Rams beat another divisional opponent, the San Francisco 49ers, in the conference championship game during their run to the Super Bowl four years ago.
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Divisional round betting recap
Sportsbooks were unsure of which team deserved to be favored ahead of last weekend’s matchup between the Broncos and Bills. The line flipped from Broncos -1.5 to Bills -1.5 several times leading up to kickoff before it closed in the Broncos’ favor.
According to Feazel, the Broncos’ victory benefitted the sportsbook since many bettors felt drawn to Josh Allen’s quest to reach his first Super Bowl. Those dreams went down in flames with an overtime interception and a 33-30 loss.
Bettors won big as the Patriots took down the Houston Texans in a turnover-filled game, with the Pats covering the three-point line in their 28-16 victory. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye lost the ball three times, but his defense forced the Texans' C.J. Stroud into four interceptions.
Speculation related to quarterback Sam Darnold’s oblique injury helped influence bettors to back the San Francisco 49ers ahead of their matchup with the Seahawks. Any hopes of an upset went down in flames in a 41-6 loss that was doomed from the first play, a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown.
The books also found themselves on the right side of the Rams’ 20-17 overtime victory against the Chicago Bears. The Rams winning but failing to cover in a game that went under the projected total finished perfectly for Caesars, as many believed the Bears would continue their late-game heroics in a high-scoring win on their home field.
NFC dominates Super Bowl odds
While the Patriots are favored to take down the Broncos, they are expected to be underdogs against either the Rams or the Seahawks, should they reach the Super Bowl.
Caesars has the Seahawks as the leader in Super Bowl odds at +150, followed by the Rams (+220). The Patriots (+245) and Broncos (+1,300) are in the bottom half with 29% and 7.1% implied probability of winning the Super Bowl, respectively.
