A federal regulator is proposing new rules for the Wild West of prediction markets, albeit ones that will still allow much of the de facto sports wagering already offered by the exchanges.
- The CFTC proposed new rules that generally appear to allow prediction markets to continue offering sports-related event contracts such as moneylines, point spreads, and player props.
- The proposal would prohibit higher-risk contract types tied to things like injuries, officiating decisions, and more easily manipulatable outcomes.
- The rules reinforce federal support for sports event contracts despite ongoing legal challenges, with a 45-day public comment period now underway before any final regulations take effect.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released a batch of proposed rules Wednesday that will apply to the federally regulated prediction markets the agency oversees.
In short, those amended rules say the de facto sports wagering offered by prediction markets via event contracts can continue, but with limits intended to guard against manipulation and other unwanted side effects.
tldr: this CFTC will permit most, but not all, sports event contracts
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) June 10, 2026
"Just as the corn futures market is about more than just corn, a prediction market about one sporting event is about more than just that sporting event." https://t.co/P6Ahp6Ftgz
That apparently means the CFTC won’t stand in the way of prediction markets offering “yes/no” contracts on things like moneylines, point spreads, and player props. However, the regulator likely would get involved if an operator tried to offer wagering on the number of penalty flags in an NFL game or whether the next play would be a run or pass.
The CFTC is proposing to do so by amending rules around the kind of event contracts that could be deemed “contrary to the public interest,” and therefore not approved for trading.
This would involve tweaking the regulator’s definition of “gaming” within the “special rule” that allows the CFTC to block unwanted contracts. The agency is also attempting to clarify what factors it will weigh when trying to determine whether a contract goes against the public interest.
“Within gaming, the Commission aims to permit contracts settled on aggregate sports outcomes with objective data and integrity infrastructure, while prohibiting pure‑chance games and high‑risk sports‑adjacent designs (e.g., injury, officiating‑only, discrete actions, altercations, pre‑collegiate events),” the proposed rulemaking document states.
The CFTC says it “preliminarily” believes that certain aspects of sports-related event contracts would make it less likely to find them contrary to the public interest.
“For example, the extent to which event contracts settle based on the overall outcome of a sporting event – including final scores, point differentials, win loss results, tournament advancement, individual or team statistical performance or season long performance metrics – would be factors against a finding that the event contracts are contrary to the public interest,” the proposal says. “The Commission preliminarily believes that these categories of sports event contract markets may serve price discovery functions and provide meaningful information.”
The CFTC’s proposed rules again suggest that the federal regulator is supportive of prediction market operators offering sports-related event contracts. They also suggest the agency won’t stand in the way, or at least not much, of what is now a fast-growing business. The exceptions to that appear to be more egregious contracts, such as ones that resemble casino games or whether a player will get injured.
Sports-related event contracts first began being offered in late 2024, and have essentially opened up a new form of online sports wagering that is available across the U.S., rather than just the states that have authorized such betting. While the CFTC under former president Joe Biden pushed back against the exchanges, the Trump-era version of the agency has shown itself more open to their efforts.
We hear you
The CFTC's new rules also come as the federally regulated exchanges continue to acquire customers and increase their trading volume over the legal objections of a variety of state and tribal gambling entities.
These objections are largely aimed at the sports event contracts that are offered by the prediction markets and that are now backed once more by the CFTC. Numerous lawsuits have been filed by, on behalf of, or against prediction market operators because of sports event contracts, and their legality is being challenged in courtrooms across the U.S.
More than 8,000 event contracts were trading on prediction markets as of last month, up from 220+ in 2021, according to footnote in today's proposed CFTC rulemaking: pic.twitter.com/yvGt8j9tO6
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) June 10, 2026
Still, the CFTC has already gone to bat for sports event contracts in court, and now it is doing so via its rulemaking process. Moreover, the regulator seems to be heeding some of the concerns raised by sports leagues and other entities, which are worried about game integrity and insider trading. It looks like the CFTC will seek to block casino game-like contracts as well.
That said, the CFTC also signaled it doesn't want to be too heavy-handed with what types of event contracts can be offered by prediction markets. The agency explained (in a way eerily similar to arguments presented to state-level sports betting regulators) "excessive prohibitions of event contracts could shift demand to unregulated or offshore platforms, fragment liquidity, and reduce access to consumer protections."
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Questions? Comments?
Another concern the CFTC looks like it wants addressed is, to use the parlance of legalized sports betting, is problem gambling. The rulemaking document says that "[s]ome prediction market trading characteristics (such as outcomes occurring at unpredictable intervals, perception of skill-based decision making, near miss experiences, and potential for loss chasing behavior) are generally associated with addictive potential."
Although it doesn't appear that the CFTC is mandating RG-related measures at this time, it's suggesting those might be a good thing for prediction market operators to have.
"Protective measures, such as position limits, cooling off periods, notification restrictions, or self-exclusion mechanisms might preserve legitimate market functions while mitigating harm to retail traders," the document adds.
Wednesday’s rule proposal starts a 45-day public comment period, after which a finalized rule could be published. Sixty days after that, the CFTC’s new rules could go into effect.
“The CFTC will protect the integrity of our regulated markets without standing in the way of responsible innovation,” CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said in a press release. “This proposal gives the Commission a durable, transparent framework to identify the contracts Congress directed us to scrutinize while letting legitimate markets move forward.”
More to come.
