The NFL’s MVP race has transformed over the last five weeks, and sportsbooks have taken notice.
Key Takeaways
- Drake Maye is BetMGM’s biggest liability in the NFL MVP futures market.
- Matthew Stafford is right there or ahead of Maye at several sportsbooks.
- The Patriots’ Super Bowl odds have also greatly shortened during their winning streak.
Heading into Week 5 last month, Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s odds at BetMGM shortened to +110 as he looked like the easy front-runner to recapture the league’s top individual award.
Heading into Week 11, though, the landscape has completely changed. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is the favorite, co-favorite, or second player listed at every major U.S. sportsbook.
DraftKings and bet365 are currently giving Maye the favorite edge with odds of +275 to win MVP.
ODDS TO WIN MVP AT @FDSportsbook:
— Covers (@Covers) November 10, 2025
🔸 Drake Maye +300
🔸 Matthew Stafford +300
🔸 Jonathan Taylor +500
🔸 Patrick Mahomes +600
🔸 Josh Allen +700
🔸 Sam Darnold +800
🔸 All others +2000 or longer
DRAKE MAYE WAS +10000 IN WEEK 4 🤯
THE NFL IS WILD THIS SEASON 😅 pic.twitter.com/u0hCYhbZai
ESPN BET has him at +250, the lowest among the group of operators. Maye and Rams QB Matthew Stafford are +300 at FanDuel.
At BetMGM, Stafford (+275) is slightly ahead of Maye (+300). Chiefs signal-caller Patrick Mahomes (+500) is third and ahead of Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (+900). Allen has fallen all the way down to fifth with odds of +700.
Maye is BetMGM’s biggest liability in that futures market.
Moving on up
Maye’s odds ascension in his second pro season has come during New England's seven-game winning streak. Following the Patriots' last loss in Week 3, Maye was +10,000, Allen was +250, and Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson was +300 at BetMGM.
The New England signal-caller was still pretty far back heading into Week 8 with odds of +1,000, but after a one-point win over the Falcons in Week 9 and an impressive road win at Tampa Bay, where Maye outdueled MVP candidate Baker Mayfield last Sunday, he’s overtaken Allen and Mahomes, who recently looked like the names to beat.
On the season, Maye is third in the league with 2,555 passing yards through 10 games. He’s thrown 19 touchdowns and five interceptions and has a QB rating of 72.9, fifth best in the NFL.
At BetMGM, Maye is getting 5.1% of the tickets and 9.5% of the handle, second highest after Mahomes’ 16.8%.
There’s a clear reason why Stafford is right there with Maye. The Rams QB leads the NFL with 25 passing touchdowns, and his 2,427 passing yards rank fourth. Stafford has thrown just two interceptions in nine games as the Rams are on a four-game winning streak.
Stafford, who was +3,500 to start the regular season, is getting 3.4% of the bets and 2.4% of the handle as BetMGM’s MVP favorite. Mayfield leads all players with 9.3% of the tickets.
Super Bowl market update
Maye’s spectacular season is affecting other NFL futures markets.
“The trading team has shortened the Patriots' odds to win the Super Bowl from +12,500 to +2,000 during the team's seven-game winning streak,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “While we have seen an uptick in action on New England, the Pats winning it all would be a good outcome for the sportsbook.”
BetMGM reported that it took a $30,000 wager, with a payout of $660,000, on New England to win the Super Bowl when the odds were +2,200. With the Chiefs a +550 favorite, the Patriots are just outside the top 10 on BetMGM’s odds list and are getting 1.9% of the market’s bets and 2.2% of the handle.
The Bills were right there with Kansas City before a Week 10 loss to the Dolphins, sending Buffalo to third at +900 behind the Rams (+700) and Lions (+750).
Updated Super Bowl betting at @BetMGM
— BetMGM News (@BetMGMNews) November 11, 2025
"The trading team has shortened the Patriots odds to win the Super Bowl from +12500 to +2000 during the team's 7-game winning streak. While we have seen an uptick in action on New England, the Pats winning it all would be a good outcome for… pic.twitter.com/ajFfbRmSPP
