An injury to Denver Nuggets megastar Nikola Jokic has thrown NBA betting odds for a loop.
While Jokic avoided significant damage, his knee injury sunk his NBA MVP odds and the Nuggets’ NBA Finals and Western Conference odds.
Key Takeaways
- Jokic is expected to miss at least four weeks with a hyperextended knee injury.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic are the only players with reasonable MVP odds.
- The Nuggets are still second in Finals odds despite losing eight games from their projected win total.
Jokic, a three-time MVP, went down in a heap in Monday’s contest against the Miami Heat after his teammate, Spencer Jones, backpedaled into his leg. The collision sent Jokic’s knee inward and resulted in a hyperextension that could knock him out of action for at least four weeks.
Entering the game, Jokic was around +180 in NBA MVP odds, only trailing the Oklahoma City Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Now, he’s off the board.
Markets are already reacting to the potential injury here to Nikola Jokic.
— Jon Metler (@JonMetler) December 30, 2025
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is now -280 to win NBA MVP at FanDuel. pic.twitter.com/CwsEtL9Txh
How did a non-serious injury knock the Joker out of contention? The answer lies in the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, which states that players must participate in at least 65 games to be eligible for the award. If Jokic is out for exactly four weeks, he will miss 16 of a maximum 17 allowable absences, leaving a very thin margin for error.
Updated odds now have Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, all the way down at -450 at several top online sportsbooks. Luka Doncic (+370 at DraftKings) is the only player in close contention, followed by Cade Cunningham (+5,000).
Jokic averaged 29.6 points (fourth), 12.2 rebounds (first), and 11 assists (first) per game on 60.5% shooting (eighth).
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Finals, conference odds shift
Jokic’s NBA MVP odds weren’t the only betting future that took a hit. The Nuggets are still second in NBA Finals odds, only behind the Thunder (+100), but they lengthened to +1,000 at FanDuel Sportsbook. That’s barely ahead of the New York Knicks (+1,100), San Antonio Spurs (+1,300), and Houston Rockets (+1,400).
They’re also second in odds to win the Western Conference, but only at +650. The Thunder are at -165, and the Spurs (+800) and Rockets (+850) are hot on Denver’s heels.
Jokic has only missed 36 games since the start of the 2019-20 season, making him one of the NBA’s iron men.
In those games, the Nuggets were a dismal 13-23. They were an even worse 4-8 without him during the 2024-25 campaign.
One week ago, the Nuggets’ projected win total was sitting at over/under 56.5. That number is down to 48.5 at FanDuel.
Despite the precedent, the Nuggets are still -3,000 to make the playoffs and +880 to miss them. That translates to a 96.8% implied chance that they will be in the postseason bracket.
Huge opportunities to start the New Year
With the Nuggets practically guaranteed to vacate their status as the third-place team in the Western Conference, the upcoming month will present a huge opportunity for the Spurs, Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Spurs were one game ahead of the Nuggets, while the others were just one or 1.5 games behind them. Every team that finishes as a top-four seed is guaranteed to have home-court advantage for at least one playoff series.
The Nuggets have a 10-game cushion on the first team to miss the Play-In Tournament, which is currently the Utah Jazz. However, the seventh-placed Phoenix Suns are only three games behind Denver and could use Jokic’s absence as an opportunity to claw out of the Play-In and into a top-six seed.
