With divisional and playoff races heating up significantly in Week 14, seemingly every NFL game mattered Sunday in the league’s big picture.
Key Takeaways
- The Packers, Seahawks, Rams, and Texans were good for the public.
- The sportsbooks did well on the Saints upsetting the Bucs and the Steelers knocking off the Ravens.
- The Eagles are getting the bulk of the action for MNF.
Results matter to sports betting every week, but high stakes led to a fairly spread-out betting pattern from the public, which meant a more even battle between bettors and sportsbooks.
“It was a mixed bag of results today, some good games for the book in the (early slate) and the (late) games going the way of the bettors,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook.
That was the trend Sunday as closing favorites went 6-6 against the spread and 7-5 outright in Week 14.
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All over the place
One of the most critical games of the day summed up the balance, though it ultimately went the way of bettors.
The Packers were 6.5-point favorites at home in a massive NFC North showdown with the Bears, who entered the day as the conference’s No. 1 seed. Chicago was the most-bet team by tickets at BetMGM, but Green Bay was getting 57% of the handle and was the third most-bet team by money.
Green Bay ended up winning 28-21 in a game that ultimately went the public’s way despite early wagers pounding the underdog.
“The Packers were one of the more popular selections in the (late) slate, drawing strong support from bettors,” Feazel said. “Green Bay managed to hold on and cover the 6.5-point spread we had posted all week, rewarding those who backed them.”
Wins for the books
The sportsbooks came out on top in a few surprising upsets. In need of a division win over the lowly Saints, the Buccaneers, who were getting 78% of the spread and moneyline handle, were unable to pull it off, losing outright 24-20 as 8.5-point favorites.
“Whenever a lower-tier team like the Saints pulls off a win, it tends to be a positive outcome for the book,” Feazel said. “Not only does it help on the straight bet side, but it also broke up a significant number of moneyline parlays that typically lean toward favorites like Tampa Bay.”
In a key AFC North rivalry battle, the Steelers (+6) shocked the Ravens with a 27-22 upset. BetMGM reported Sunday morning that Baltimore was getting 57% of the handle, and Feazel said Caesars saw a steady stream of backing on the favorite throughout the week, leading to a good result for the book. The game also went over the most-bet total at BetMGM.
In the bad beat of the day, the Broncos barely missed out on covering in a 24-17 win at Las Vegas after the Raiders kicked a field goal down 10 following a delay of game call on Denver that kept the game alive. Nearly 70% of the money was on the Broncos.
The Browns, who were getting 71% of the money at BetMGM at home, failed to win or cover as 4-point favorites, and any time the Titans win, it goes well for operators. The Vikings, who went from 1-point underdogs to -1 late Sunday, were only getting 34% of the handle at BetMGM, but they routed Washington 31-0. Wins by the Jaguars and Dolphins were also good for the online operator.
Bettors fight back
Even though some underdogs were in play for the public, the favorite that cashed big for bettors was Seattle, which blistered Atlanta 37-9 to cover as a 6.5-point favorite getting 75% of the spread money at BetMGM. The Seahawks were the operator’s most-bet team by handle, and they saw plenty of action at Caesars and other books.
“The Seahawks continue to quietly dominate on both sides of the ball, and that consistency hasn’t gone unnoticed by our customers,” Feazel said. “Seattle’s blowout win over Atlanta was one of the most popular picks among bettors, reinforcing the growing confidence in their ability to control games.”
The Rams easily covered as 9.5-point favorites over the Cardinals in a 45-17 win for a team that received over 90% of the handle.
Houston’s 20-10 win over the Chiefs in prime time Sunday was also good for bettors, as BetMGM reported the majority of bets and money were on the Texans. The under 41.5 was the second most-bet total for the week and was getting 72% of the handle.
Instant classic
In one of the day's wildest games, Buffalo held off the Bengals 39-34, winning but coming up short of the 6.5 points.
That doesn’t mean it was an instant winner for the books. The third most-bet total at BetMGM soared over 59.5, and the Bills rallied from an early deficit.
“Although Buffalo didn’t manage to cover their opening spread, they were a strong favorite in our in-game markets, drawing plenty of live betting interest,” Feazel said. “Anytime these two teams combine for a high-scoring affair, it tends to be a win for bettors who stack popular Same Game Parlay legs. Points, player props, and touchdowns all came through in this matchup.”
MNF insights
One of the most popularly bet teams every week is seeing the bulk of action as a road favorite this week. The Eagles (-2) are getting 68% of the handle and 66% of the tickets at BetMGM heading into their Monday Night Football showdown against the Chargers.
DraftKings reported 73% of the tickets and 74% of the money is on Philadelphia -2.5. There’s 80% of the moneyline handle backing the Eagles as well.
The 42-point total, however, is split at BetMGM, which reported that 64% of the tickets are on the over, but the money is even. DraftKings said 75% of the bets are backing over 41.5, but the under is getting 54% of the handle.
Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey’s over 49.5 receiving yards is the most-bet player prop at BetMGM, while Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is the most popular bet in the anytime touchdown and first touchdown scorer markets.
