The Cowboys-Eagles game Thursday night was just an appetizer for a long weekend of action. The NFL is set to dominate televisions and sportsbook apps with one game Friday, 12 more Sunday, and the Monday Night Football finale to wrap up Week 1.
Key Takeaways
- Ravens-Bills, Chiefs-Chargers, and Lions-Packers are expected to be heavy volume games for sportsbooks.
- Bettors are gravitating to the Bengals, Jets, and Broncos on Sunday.
- Week 1 offers a great deal of unpredictability because of a lighter preseason.
The game that operators have their eye on to outshine the rest takes place Sunday night when the Ravens visit the Bills in a prime-time matchup between the market favorites to win the Super Bowl.
“This has the potential to be the best opening Sunday night game we’ve ever had as far as handle is concerned,” Draftkings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Covers this week. “You’ve got two teams, both true contenders to win the AFC and go on to the Super Bowl. The point spread is really tight, 1.5 on the Bills. It hasn’t moved any.”
This wasn’t one of the most-bet games at BetMGM early in the week, but that’s expected to change as bettors go through Friday’s Chiefs-Chargers game in Brazil and into the early and late Sunday slate.
The latest Ravens vs. Bills betting splits show this one is shaping up to be an operator’s dream. BetMGM has reported 52% of the handle and 51% of the tickets have come in on the slightly favored Bills. DraftKings, however, has seen 79% of the money backing the underdog Ravens, while ESPN BET reported the same handle Thursday, but on the Bills, not the Ravens.
“Bettors will all be engaged in this one,” Avello said.
Attention-drawers
| Week 1 Game | DraftKings Handle | BetMGM Handle | ESPN BET Handle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs-Chargers | KC (-3) 69% | KC (-3) 66% | LA (+3.5) 55% |
| Raiders-Patriots | NE (-2.5) 55% | NE (-2.5) 61% | NE (-2.5) 66% |
| Bengals-Browns | CIN (-5.5) 75% | CIN (-5.5) 66% | CIN (-5.5) 69% |
| Cardinals-Saints | AZ (-6.5) 81% | AZ (-6.5) 87% | AZ (-6.5) 78% |
| Steelers-Jets | PIT (-2.5) 76% | PIT (-3) 74% | PIT (-2.5) 77% |
| Dolphins-Colts | MIA (+1.5) 81% | MIA (+1.5) 50% | MIA (+1.5) 73% |
| Giants-Commanders | WSH (-6) 53% | NYG (+6) 51% | NYG (+6.5) 62% |
| Buccaneers-Falcons | TB (-1.5) 56% | TB (-2.5) 61% | ATL (+1.5) 54.8% |
| Panthers-Jaguars | JAX (-3.5) 61% | JAX (-3.5) 83% | JAX (-2.5) 63% |
| 49ers-Seahawks | SF (-2.5) 80% | SF (-2.5) 96% | SF (-2.5) 79% |
| Titans-Broncos | DEN (-8.5) 83% | DEN (-8) 95% | DEN (-8.5) 90% |
| Texans-Rams | HOU (+3) 54% | LA (-3) 62% | HOU (+3.5) 70% |
| Lions-Packers | DET (+2.5) 74% | DET (+2.5) 81% | DET (+1.5) 69% |
| Ravens-Bills | BAL (-1.5) 79% | BUF (-1) 52% | BUF (-1.5) 79% |
| Vikings-Bears | CHI (+1.5) 56% | MIN (-1.5) 54% | CHI (+1.5) 70% |
So far, the Chargers are getting a lot of spread love at Fanatics Sportsbook, which reported that 84% of the handle is on the underdog of +3 to cover. ESPN BET reported that about 55% of the money has come in on the Chargers, but the defending AFC champion Chiefs are getting over 65% of the handle at both BetMGM and DraftKings.
Those Chiefs vs. Chargers splits could certainly shift as bettors take aim at Friday’s standalone game on a neutral site.
“The Friday night game between the Chiefs and Chargers could rival (Thursday’s Eagles-Cowboys handle),” Avello said. “I think the Thursday night game will do better, but I don’t think the Friday night game will be too far behind.”
One of the best matchups of the week is another divisional game, showcasing the Lions and Packers. Avello said DraftKings opened the game at -1.5 Green Bay. The Packers took early money, and they’re linked to parlays and other bets, but he expects a lot of moneyline action on the Lions at +124.
“I think this one is going to be split,” Avello said.
Upset-minded
Despite constant, year-round coverage of the NFL, the first week can be tough to gauge for both bettors and oddsmakers. After all, the preseason isn’t what it used to be, with seemingly fewer and fewer starters seeing live action. Many teams, even the good ones, can understandably come out flat.
“Week 1 is unpredictable,” Avello said. “Some of these numbers are maybe a little lower than you would expect because in Week 1, there are some upsets. There have been some in the past. It doesn’t mean that it’s going to happen this year. A lot of the offenses aren’t really in sync.”
That opens up opportunities to take moneyline shots on teams with plus odds. Avello believes bettors will be on the Texans and their aggressive defense as +130 underdogs against the Rams, who are starting a rusty Matthew Stafford at quarterback.
Avello also thinks fans of the Raiders (+130) and Giants (+215) will show up to bet their teams. The Falcons are slight home underdogs of +114 that could draw moneyline attention, but thus far, they’ve only taken 39% of the money and 25% of the tickets at DraftKings in Sunday’s game against the Buccaneers.
The Lions, Chargers, and Bears are three of the top five most-bet underdogs at BetMGM.
No surprises
Sunday’s early matchups don't appear as strong as the later afternoon games on paper, but bettors are already lining up to take teams they’ve bought into during the offseason and fade the ones they think will fall flat.
For example, the Bengals are 5.5-point favorites over the Browns in a Week 1 divisional matchup. That’s not necessarily an inviting spread, yet Cincinnati has seen at least 65% of the money at several sportsbooks, meaning the house is rooting for Cleveland.
"We’re going to need the Browns on that one," Avello said. "I won’t be surprised to see that go up a tick on game day to six."
Avello said 30% of the NFL MVP futures market money is on Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, so he expects bettors to be fading the Browns on parlays and teasers and backing Cincinnati players in the prop markets.
"If the Bengals go down, that’ll be a good result for us," Avello said.
Another early Sunday game with some attention is Steelers-Jets. With Aaron Rodgers playing against his old team, Pittsburgh (-3) is the third most-bet team by handle at BetMGM. The Broncos are another team that received some offseason hype, and Denver is more than a touchdown favorite against a Titans team that’s still rebuilding. Bettors aren’t shying away from laying the points in this late-afternoon game.
“It’s possible they don’t cover this number,” but I think it’s a game they’re going to win,” Avello said.
Under or over?
Bettors love overs. Sharps love unders in certain spots. It’s a tale as old as time. Heading into Week 1, Avello said he expects the same, but it’s fairly split across the board. Steelers-Jets, Falcons-Bucs, Lions-Packers, and 49ers-Seahawks have been under plays, while Chiefs-Chargers, Dolphins-Colts, and Panthers-Jags are big overs.
Texans-Rams under 44 is the second-most bet total this week at BetMGM, followed by Browns-Bengals over 47.5, and Chiefs-Chargers under 45.5. Lions-Packers over 47.5 is the most-bet total still on the board at ESPN BET.
Get in the zone
Avello said anytime and first touchdown markets are annually among the most popular player props, and he’s already seen notable action come in on running backs Derrick Henry and David Montgomery.
Fanatics Sportsbook reported that Kansas City receiver Xavier Worthy (+125) is the most-bet anytime touchdown scorer in Friday night’s game. Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (+160) is second, ahead of tight end Travis Kelce (+150).
BetMGM reported this week that Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa under 1.5 touchdowns is one of the most popular player props listed. Bears running back D’Andre Swift, who faces the Vikings on Monday, is next with over 9.5 receiving yards.
