Consider college football’s apple cart officially upset, and that’s just one game into the playoff quarterfinals.
Key Takeaways
- College football has a new favorite to win the national championship.
- Ohio State had the shortest odds of any team at BetMGM this season.
- Georgia is a popular favorite to advance past the quarterfinals on Thursday.
No. 10 Miami’s 24-14 victory over second-seeded Ohio State in New Year’s Eve’s Cotton Bowl killed off a ton of futures bets and gave college football a new favorite for the first time since August 2025.
Heading into Saturday’s quarterfinal matchup with No. 9 Alabama, No. 1 Indiana leads the college football national championship market with odds of +250 at several major U.S. sportsbooks. No. 3 Georgia is second on the list at +300 at BetMGM and +310 at FanDuel.
Miami has surged up the board after becoming the first double-digit seed in the two years of the playoffs to win a game, much less two. TheScore Bet had the Hurricanes +2,000 to win the national title heading into the Ohio State game. After the win, they jumped to +475. Miami is as short as +400 at BetMGM.
The Buckeyes had the shortest odds of any school this season, getting as low as +160 in early December, and were the most-bet team to win the national championship with more than 24% of the handle at BetMGM.
Updated odds to win College Football Playoff at @BetMGM
— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 1, 2026
+250 Indiana
+300 Georgia
+350 Miami
+600 Oregon
+800 Texas Tech
+1300 Alabama
+1900 Ole Miss@OhioStateFB was the most bet team to win the National Championship ❌
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Heading into the quarterfinals and coming off a bye, they were +200 to win the playoff. Miami was +2,200 and was getting less than 4% of the handle the last time BetMGM released a futures market update.
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Good for the books
Most bettors certainly didn’t see Wednesday night’s game going the way it did, with Miami dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and rushing for more than 150 yards against a defense that was giving up less than 90 per game on the ground.
Ohio State was the most-bet team in the quarterfinals heading into Wednesday.
TheScore Bet reported before the game that 67% of the handle and 59% of the bets were on the Buckeyes. BetMGM had the same percentage of tickets but a higher 70% of the money coming in on the 9.5-point favorite.
Nearly 87% of the moneyline handle at theScore Bet was on the Buckeyes as well, giving the house a big win heading into the New Year.
Thursday’s insights
| DraftKings Splits | BetMGM Splits | theScore Bet splits | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon-Texas Tech (+2.5) |
OR 60% bets |
OR 55% bets |
TT 50% bets |
| Alabama-Indiana (-7) |
AL 58% bets |
IN 53% bets |
AL 65% bets |
| Ole Miss-Georgia (-6.5) |
GA 77% bets |
GA 70% bets |
GA 63% bets |
New Year’s Day is all about the College Football Playoff, with No. 5 Oregon starting off as a 2.5-point favorite against No. 4 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. The majority of handle and tickets at DraftKings and BetMGM are backing the Ducks, while theScore Bet has seen more Red Raiders action than the other two operators.
Alabama is a touchdown underdog against the Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl. Indiana is a popular pick at BetMGM, but the Crimson Tide has a slight lead in tickets at the other two sportsbooks.
It’s all Georgia (-6.5) in the Sugar Bowl against Ole Miss. Bettors have been backing the Bulldogs heavily this week, and that’s likely to continue up until the evening kickoff.
